CornahohoBear Virus? No Problem, Drink Bleach - 4/24/2020

[sandy beach]

This was a truly random study:

 

About 6 percent of Miami-Dade’s population — about 165,000 residents — have antibodies indicating a past infection by the novel coronavirus, dwarfing the state health department’s tally of about 10,600 cases, according to preliminary study results announced by University of Miami researchers Friday.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html

[aussiebear]

3 hours ago, GregFokker said:

After a generation suffered a youth in economic Depression, and then busted their teen & early-20s youth asses saving democracy during the 1940s, they came home and procreated. Their spawn have turned out to be the most indulged and spoiled and unreflective generation humanity has ever known.

I dunno ..  this Gen X guy makes the baby boomers look positively decent by comparison:

 

"The four officers were standing in the emergency lane when the truck hit them as they prepared to impound the Porsche 911 being driven by 41-year-old Melbourne mortgage broker Richard Pusey.

 

Mr Pusey was allegedly travelling at 149 kilometres per hour while under the influence of methylamphetamine and cannabis before he was pulled over.

 

"All I wanted to do was go home and eat my sushi, you've f***ed my f***ing car," Leading Senior Constable Taylor's body camera is alleged to have recorded Mr Pusey saying to her, before fleeing the scene.

She was pinned under the truck at the time."

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-24/porsche-driver-charged-after-crash-that-killed-police-officers/12179242

[DrStool]

LIQUIDITY TRADER - MACRO LIQUIDITY- FED AND BANKING

Fed Is the Ventilinflator

by Lee Adler • April 25, 2020 • 0 Comments

Ever resolute, the Fed kept pumping the cash into Primary Dealer accounts. It kept at it until, as I calculated elsewhere, it had pumped in about $800 billion more than the dealers, and indeed the entire world, needed to absorb the flood of Treasury supply that was hammering it. That happened by the middle of April.

It was enough for the dealers to get back to their fun business of acquiring inventories of stocks, marking them up, triggering short squeezes, and convincing their herds of institutional sheep customers to follow the shorts and dive back into the market with whatever cash they had raised on the way down.

It worked, as we all know. Stocks have recovered around 55% of what they lost in the crash.

But the Fed has started to do the tighten up. Here’s what you need to know.

[Jorma]

What about TP you asked me Lee.

Well I was asking, to be more specific, if tp will be worth more than TP someday?  I believe so by the way. Timing is an issue to be sure. As your an expert on both subjects I'm sure you in a unique position to address the issues. 

[fxfox]

Very good interview with Michael Oliver regarding stocks, gold, banks etc.:

https://kingworldnews.com/michael-oliver-4-25-2020/
 

that guy could be a stoolie 😂

[SiP]

V good thread about dollar

In short - stronger dollar and deflation ahead

[DrStool]

Deflation first, then inflation as too many dollars chase too few goods.  And too many people will have too few dollars to be able to bear the higher prices.

It will be a catastrophe. 

Unless the markets do their job of destroying money. 

Which the Fed seems determined not to allow. Hence we get potentially hyperinflationary stagflation. 

We are already seeing the beginnings of it in meat production. Oil is also showing signs of reversal. Again it need not go to 100. If it goes to 30, that would be painful enough. And gold of course. The inflation that I'm thinking could occur will show up first in commodities, particularly money substitutes like gold and oil. 

I don't see a dollar collapse because other central banks are printing just as fast. Again, inflationary in the face of falling demand leading to production cuts. The production cuts result in fewer goods, while there's more money.

So prices rise, leading to more demand reduction and production cuts, but not less money unless the financial markets are allowed to do their job. As long as the central banks prop up financial asset prices, the result will be terrible, self feeding stagflation. 

[fxfox]

Thank you Doc! 🙂

When you speak about deflation first, do you think that that wave is in front of us or do you believe that the deflationary part is already behind us?

 

RE US Dollar collapse:

I agree. The Dollar is traded against other currencies. It will not collapse against them, it will in fact most likely stay stronger versus the Euro for example. That its purchasing power against a basket of goods will decrease is another topic.

RE Gold:

could really explode to the upside. Last thing missing is a new ATH in US Dollars. Already made one in Euros and most impotantly::in Swiss Francs. That is really big in my view, cause CHF is a „economic stress“ currency. So that means that „investors“ prefer Gold to CHF, they prefer Gold to paper.

RE Oil:

I agree. Price low ccould already be in. Draw a downtrendchannel on a log WTI chart from the ATH. You see that price went below lower channel line. That line was a long term target for oil shorts. Price did overshoot and did fall outside the channel. Happens. I would be very careful shorting Oil here. The major damage was already done. Now shorts leave it alone and move to the next victim. They will short weakness. They will search for a victim in the fnancial sector. Maybe the whole banking sector, who knows.

[DrStool]

2 hours ago, fxfox said:

Thank you Doc! 🙂

When you speak about deflation first, do you think that that wave is in front of us or do you believe that the deflationary part is already behind us?

We have already seen the first shortages, so I think that the turn is under way. Meat is a big deal.  Farmers are destroying crops. They're reducing herds. Supply chains are disrupted. So I lean toward the idea that we're going to see a lot of inflation in consumption goods, particularly necessities. But other things maybe not. 

WIll all return to  recent past normal? To believe the deflation argument you need to believe that production will return to past norms. But won't producers find that it's more profitable to continue producing less with less? Meanwhile, there's a lot more money around. And this time, much of it is helicopter money, not just money that stays locked up in financial assets. 

I do think that we will have horrendous deflation in commercial real estate. So what kinds of adaptive reuses will there be for all those office, retail, and restaurant spaces? Do they just become ruins? Some retail can be adapted to warehouse distribution, but what about all the office space? What impact will billions of square feet of excess commercial space have?

I'd love to see some brainstorming on these issues. 

[fxfox]

12 minutes ago, DrStool said:

We have already seen the first shortages, so I think that the turn is under way. Meat is a big deal.  Farmers are destroying crops. They're reducing herds. Supply chains are disrupted. So I lean toward the idea that we're going to see a lot of inflation in consumption goods, particularly necessities. But other things maybe not. 

WIll all return to  recent past normal? To believe the deflation argument you need to believe that production will return to past norms. But won't producers find that it's more profitable to continue producing less with less? Meanwhile, there's a lot more money around. And this time, much of it is helicopter money, not just money that stays locked up in financial assets. 

I do think that we will have horrendous deflation in commercial real estate. So what kinds of adaptive reuses will there be for all those office, retail, and restaurant spaces? Do they just become ruins? Some retail can be adapted to warehouse distribution, but what about all the office space? What impact will billions of square feet of excess commercial space have?

I'd love to see some brainstorming on these issues. 

Agree absolutely on commercial real estate. You can add to your points that the golden era of big malls is over. Forever. Office space? Catastrophe! The way we work and from where we work will change. Forever. Corona leads to epochal shifts in the way we live and work.

i have to say that I have a hard time to believe that 2190 was THE low. But if inflation sets in now that will probably be the case, wouldn‘t it?

 

[DrStool]

 

[DrStool]

1 hour ago, fxfox said:

Agree absolutely on commercial real estate. You can add to your points that the golden era of big malls is over. Forever. Office space? Catastrophe! The way we work and from where we work will change. Forever. Corona leads to epochal shifts in the way we live and work.

i have to say that I have a hard time to believe that 2190 was THE low. But if inflation sets in now that will probably be the case, wouldn‘t it?

 

TECHNICAL TRADER

The Fed Has Won the Battle But At What Cost

by Lee Adler • April 26, 2020 • 0 Comments

Evidence is increasing that we will not see the March low materially exceeded in nominal terms. This may have little meaning in terms of the future purchasing power of a dollar, but at least nominally the worst seems over. The Fed has won this round and is, for now, again in control of the stock market.

[fxfox]

Upside gap. Kaboom!

[fxfox]

Gap closed. 😂

what a market!

[aussiebear]

7 hours ago, fxfox said:

Agree absolutely on commercial real estate. You can add to your points that the golden era of big malls is over. Forever. Office space? Catastrophe! The way we work and from where we work will change. Forever. Corona leads to epochal shifts in the way we live and work.

Yes.  What I'm hearing is how much people are enjoying working from home and I suspect that trend will continue post-covid 19.  One downside is lack of interaction with colleagues and indeed I found that hard to deal with when I started trading but you get used to it.  Technology is such that one could have screens all over the place if desired.  Even the radio station I listen to is setting up studios in announcers' own houses, again technology at work.  Buildings?  Knock 'em down and make green areas with farmers' markets and pop-up stalls.