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Stock Market Still In Uptrend, My Mood Isn't 4/23/20

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4 minutes ago, Jorma said:

It surely was an antibody test and those are not accurate enough, probably, but good for a ballpark number.  It's good news in a sense, till you consider the other 80%.  So the good news is, to extrapolate the rate if infection;  using Feb 1 as a start date, only 15 more months till most everyone has gotten the immunity that contraction supplies. Which is open to question.

I'm just saying the long haul is what should be considered, for you and yours and everyone else.

Yes, and herd immunity varies by R0. We don't know - but this virus may have been in NYC much earlier than we thought spreading. With a lower R0 you can get herd immunity at 30% assuming you don't overshoot. With a high R0 it'll require over 90% again if you don't overshoot. Overshoot is where you actually pass beyond herd immunity because the spread is just so fast everyone get's contact on the first pass. 

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Pretty interesting situation. California insurance companies are waving COVID related treatment: https://www.blueshieldca.com/bsca/bsc/wcm/connect/sites/sites_content_en/coronavirus/your-c

Watch out for bad ticks - they can give you Lyme disease!

Donchya think the NY & NYC antibody test results are encouraging? Way more peoples + for this drech than presumed.

See the whicks on those 30 mins candles in the chart on the top of the page? They gonna bomb it all the way up to the top again. The Gilead bomb wasn‘t in the playbook today, so it got to be reversed.

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I live in West Michigan in a county adjoining a moderately large metropolitan area, Grand Rapids. A good surrogate for where many people in flyover country live. In general there is and has been a considerable amount of manufacturing  and distribution of all kinds going on and only moderate at best signs of people taking personal protection seriously judging by mask use. In other words one would think infection rates would be spiking. Doesn't seem to be. County population 173K. Reported infections have gone from about 40 two weeks ago to 175 today. Reported deaths 4 then 11 now.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jorma said:

I live in West Michigan in a county adjoining a moderately large metropolitan area, Grand Rapids. A good surrogate for where most people in flyover country live. In general there is and has been a considerable amount of manufacturing  and distribution of all kinds going on and only moderate at best signs of people taking personal protection seriously judging by mask use. In other words one would think infection rates would be spiking. Doesn't seem to be. County population 173K. Reported infections have gone from about 40 two weeks ago to 175 today. Reported deaths 4 then 11 now.

 

 

It will be interesting to get antibody testing there. It depends so much on the circumstances. If you are in a subway, bus, mass gathering, etc. packed in with lots of people you see a really high infection rate. Then packing people at home with one person who is ill is very bad news. Hospitals, nursing homes, prisons - all very bad. But outside with moderate distance the chances of infecting each other is much lower. Age has a lot to do with it as well.   

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1 hour ago, sandy beach said:

A lot of epidemiologists I know are pounding the table saying that can't be! I haven't seen the details of how they selected people to test yet and which test they used so I can't say what the bias may be. Regardless it is actual data for once. I think lot of these epidemiologists convinced themselves about that which they had no evidence and are now stuck with egg on their face. But we'll see. I am always evidence based. I want to see a wider samples. But I think that's very good news for the area around New York and makes sense to me. Although I wonder if flyover country will have much lower numbers. 

The sample consisted of people who went to supermarkets or were out and about. Not exactly representative. 

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12 minutes ago, fxfox said:

„Larry Fink Sees More Remote Work Hampering Commercial Real Estate“ BBG

that guy is soooo smart! Praise the Lord that we have him! 
 

Yup. 

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3 minutes ago, DrStool said:

So Fox, are you impressed? 

Yes. Bears took control. Nice SHS on the hourly, nice Batman. With that what is to be expected early next week liquidity-wise bears have to score now. This is the chance now. Hope the FED doesn‘t make a change from those 15 like hiking it on sunday night to 50 or so. 

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59 minutes ago, fxfox said:

„Larry Fink Sees More Remote Work Hampering Commercial Real Estate“ BBG

that guy is soooo smart! Praise the Lord that we have him! 
 

That should be understood to mean Larry is going to be sending a lot of loans to commercial real estate. By the way Jerry Powell said today that the Fed will release the info on who and how much the Fed lends. So very very nice of him. Will be posted in at least 30 days says Jerry. Sure would be nice to know whose paper the Fed is buying real time, and why not? 

Just kidding. we know why not. I mean cripes. A road map to stocks to buy.

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