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We're All Gonna Die 4/20/20

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The Fed is insane. I wish I could predict what it will do. I never imagined that it would pump $2 trillion into the market in a month. 

As of Friday, the bear case was all but dead. Today is a crucial day.  I still have a ton of open shorts with small losses. 

Short term cycles are due for tops and little pullbacks at least. If it doesn’t happen, it would be another sign that the long term cycles are back in up phases. But are these cycles, or just the manifestation of the power of the Fed to create the illusion of a market?

How do you trade it? With one eye on the ground and the other to the sky. Walk this way.

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5 minutes ago, Jorma said:

In a month or three almost every state, city and town is going to be broke. Only the Federal government will have money, courtesy of the Fed.  It doesn't take much imagination  to figure out where this is going to go.

A facist dictatorship? I mean corporatism we already have in the US. I see no difference between Krupp Stahl in the 30s in Germany and the role which Google, Amazin dot bomb and others play in the US today. It is the same. Don‘t get me even started on Lockheed, Halliburton, Raytheon and so fourth.

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Stock Market Strikes Back at Fed’s Illusion of a Market

by Lee Adler •  • 0 Comments

S&P 500 ES Futures Chart

The Fed has created the illusion of functioning markets, but today futures traders are striking back. The Fed, with all its trillions, may not have the control that it wants, and Wall Street wishes. Today looks pivotal in that regard. 

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As to his second point, SARS-CoV-2 is a single stranded RNA virus. Why is that important? Because single stranded RNA viruses mutate easily. They create a mutation about once per week per lineage. And we now have many thousands of lineages out there of SARS-CoV-2 as the virus expands and each lineage mutates once per week. And it only started in Nov 2019! So a year or two from now any vaccine that can generate antibodies that recognizes todays SARS-CoV-2 may no longer recognize this new viral form. In fact it may even trigger antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) which is where antibodies against an older version of the virus actually causes your immune system to not effectively fight a newer mutated version of the virus leading to a much worse outcome on second challenge. You see ADE with Dengu for example. The reason RNA viruses mutate faster than DNA viruses is because DNA is double stranded and the second strand works as an error correction template. If a mutation occurs in DNA the second strand can be used to repair the error. You can say using RNA instead of DNA is an adaptation for viruses because it allows them to evolve faste

This is why the mRNA vaccines are so intriguing because the scale-up and manufacture of such vaccines is simplified-- such that you could theoretically keep up with drift.  I assume you would need to do limited pre-clinical testing for ADE, then you're good to go if the safety of the platform is proven.  Much like the modern flu vaccine.


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