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The Cure- Off to the Races 4/17/20


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Sandy.  Way back in Feb I saw some reassuring statements regarding the genetic drift of the virus and  if it could make effective vaccination more difficult. Not so much seemed to be the word.  And also  statements regarding the effects, like the rate of severe infection,  between the various strains that have been ID'.  The answer seemed to be they are all the same. Could be. 

What is your sense of this drift thing and it's significance, or lack of it on immunization, natural and vaccine? It doesn't take much imagination to make up an Armageddon story out of it all.  

 

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1 hour ago, Jorma said:

Sandy.  Way back in Feb I saw some reassuring statements regarding the genetic drift of the virus and  if it could make effective vaccination more difficult. Not so much seemed to be the word.  And also  statements regarding the effects, like the rate of severe infection,  between the various strains that have been ID'.  The answer seemed to be they are all the same. Could be. 

What is your sense of this drift thing and it's significance, or lack of it on immunization, natural and vaccine? It doesn't take much imagination to make up an Armageddon story out of it all.  

 

Jorma, there are a few scientists who have postulated in journals that there are two or three strains now that might have different values for R0 or CFR. However, the vast majority of scientists in the field think their papers are of poor quality and lacking evidence. I'm in the latter camp. However, the mutation rate is rapid so I have little doubt we'll have strains popping up in one or two years that have different properties either more or less infectious or fatal. And these strains may also have different antigenic properties. In other words if we design a vaccine now it may not be effective in two years. This is more or less the situation with most flu like viruses. You have to design a new vaccine mix each year to keep up with them because they mutate so quickly. The worst outcome is ADE which I described above. If this does end up causing ADE we would be in a world of hurt because of the high infection rate. But that's not certain at this point. 

We recently did a serology study in Santa Clara County, CA which showed that 2-4% of the population there has already been infected for more than 14 days. It was not a perfect study but if that holds true it would mean that the case fatality rate for those under 50 years of age without comorbidities is very low - more like the flu. Those people may be ready to take the risk to go back to a more normal life with some precautions if those numbers are validated. Those over 50 are the cohort that will likely need to look at taking an annual COVID19 shot that will include antigens for for SARS-CoV-2 assuming we can create one.    

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Thanks. I was thinking, wrongly I suppose, of timelines less than years. 

The ADE thing  I'll file under science fiction.  Not that it isn't a real thing but it becoming a real thing on a long term global basis seems far fetched. Known history seems to be on our side there I think.

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23 hours ago, fxfox said:

This question is from Sven Henrich, a very good guy frtom twitter:

“There seem to be building expectations for a vaccine or treatment to arrive shortly for a virus that appears to be continuing to surprise with its effectiveness, adaptiveness, infectiousness & persistence.
How can you have a vaccine for something we have yet to fully understand?“

We have some experts here at the stool. Could please someone help regarding this valid question?

Who?   https://wallstreetexaminer.com/author/sven-henrich/

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On 4/18/2020 at 7:54 PM, T_Slim said:

Where's Shorty?! 😀 Miss those guys: Beardrech, Shorty, Drano, Madness , Hank, LeeWhee

Shorty, Beardrech, LeeWhee have left the earthly veil. Madness is around under different aliasses, from time to time, I think.  Drano got pissed off at me and left in a huff. Don't know where she went. Who's Hank? 😕

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23 hours ago, sandy beach said:

Immunization with SARS Coronavirus Vaccines Leads to Pulmonary Immunopathology on Challenge with the SARS Virus

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/

Another attempt the vaccine reverted into the live virus:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4626112/

We're all gonna die. 

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19 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Shorty, Beardrech, LeeWhee have left the earthly veil. Madness is around under different aliasses, from time to time, I think.  Drano got pissed off at me and left in a huff. Don't know where she went. Who's Hank? 😕

I remember LeeWhee passing. I didn't know about Shorty and Beardrech. I'm so sorry.

I'd really love to see Madness again! Come on back Madness!

Sudaca, Jickiss, Takachi, Goldmember, FrancisoTheMan, Ags Nightmare, seamus, Henry Penny, Charmin, Private Skidmark, phatbubble, machinehead, hypertiger? And I remember your favorite wndysrf :) LOL

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The number of companies in danger of having their credit rating lowered is at a 10-year high, according to S&P Global Ratings. Among the companies drawing greater scrutiny are Chevron, Honda and the Walt Disney Co.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/record-government-and-corporate-debt-risks-tipping-point-after-pandemic-passes/ar-BB12QriZ

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