Jorma Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, DrStool said: How can it be that this virus kills some people in such a grotesque way, and causes such severe illness in others, and yet 90% of people show no symptoms. Is that normal? Individual immune system differences. Then too people with ordinarily good immune systems caught at a time with a system weakened by other infections. Dumb luck. Dumb luck which includes the dose one got. Breathing in a big rich dosed right into the lungs, or several, is according to my crackpot theory, a lot worse than getting a bit in your mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 That’s because the earliest studies on COVID-19 have shown that many patients develop pneumonia in both lungs, accompanied by symptoms like shortness of breath. That’s when phase two and the immune system kicks in. Aroused by the presence of a viral invader, our bodies step up to fight the disease by flooding the lungs with immune cells to clear away the damage and repair the lung tissue. When working properly, this inflammatory process is tightly regulated and confined only to infected areas. But sometimes your immune system goes haywire and those cells kill anything in their way, including your healthy tissue. “So you get more damage instead of less from the immune response,” Frieman says. Even more debris clogs up the lungs, and pneumonia worsens. (Find out how the novel coronavirus compares to flu, Ebola, and other major outbreaks). https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-what-coronavirus-does-to-the-body/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 hours ago, sandy beach said: First data is out for the Stanford Serology study of Santa Clara county. They found the actual infection rate is 50-85 times greater than the number of confirmed cases. That implies a 2.49%-4.16% infection rate. In rural Telluride area is was 0.5%. In a random sample of pregnant women in NYC it was 15%. So that gives us our first estimate for the range across the US. Given that we have 678K confirmed cases that would put the actual infected range at 34-58 million in the states right now. Still tough to calculate case fatality rate as deaths lag by 17 days on average that we know of. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 This is spectacular. I'll betchya my 10 year old who landed in ER on March 3rd had it. I'll betchya my family would test positive for antibodies. Saw on Bloomberg last night that Roche expects to release an antibody test of some sort in early May. Totally want my family tested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, DrStool said: If those infection rates are correct, when do we reach herd immunity? When everyone has been exposed and humanity takes to grazing on the open prairie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, DrStool said: If you gave 100% weight to resistance and no weight to momentum, well, ok, but really. Who would do that? You thought that it would be a breakaway gap? At that stage? I mean we are already 30% or so off the lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jimi said: When everyone has been exposed and humanity takes to grazing on the open prairie. ... while the Dow closes at 66,666.66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Jorma said: Individual immune system differences. Then too people with ordinarily good immune systems caught at a time with a system weakened by other infections. Dumb luck. Dumb luck which includes the dose one got. Breathing in a big rich dosed right into the lungs, or several, is according to my crackpot theory, a lot worse than getting a bit in your mouth. Dumb luck defines so much of our era. The entire VC industry around Sillycon Valley is up to its eyeballs and remarkably blind to survivor bias and dumb luck. Instead, they think they're all effing geniuses.... Masters of the Future. When, instead, one company with technology happens to make the contact with some pool of money that provides it an incremental advantage over someone else doing something similar without access to that critical pool at the critical juncture. I pretty much hate everything at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Jimi said: This is spectacular. I'll betchya my 10 year old who landed in ER on March 3rd had it. I'll betchya my family would test positive for antibodies. Saw on Bloomberg last night that Roche expects to release an antibody test of some sort in early May. Totally want my family tested. I certainly hope for your sake and your families sake that you are immune! My wife's sister in Santa Clara County has it and she is stable on oxygen (verified with rtPCR). I believe two of my sisters may have gotten it with their husbands in Northern CO. The symptoms were very similar but luckily they all recovered. My wife and I are trying our best to not get it - we don't even go shopping. Locked in since late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jimi said: I pretty much hate everything at this juncture. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 22 minutes ago, Jimi said: Dumb luck defines so much of our era. The entire VC industry around Sillycon Valley is up to its eyeballs and remarkably blind to survivor bias and dumb luck. Instead, they think they're all effing geniuses.... Masters of the Future. When, instead, one company with technology happens to make the contact with some pool of money that provides it an incremental advantage over someone else doing something similar without access to that critical pool at the critical juncture. I pretty much hate everything at this juncture. Silicon Valley is a hoax and myth and is used as a marketing instrument of the US. It works due to massive brain drain from abroad and tax evasion schemes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, sandy beach said: I certainly hope for your sake and your families sake that you are immune! My wife's sister in Santa Clara County has it and she is stable on oxygen (verified with rtPCR). I believe two of my sisters may have gotten it with their husbands in Northern CO. The symptoms were very similar but luckily they all recovered. My wife and I are trying our best to not get it - we don't even go shopping. Locked in since late January. Late January - nice... and I thought I was freaking ahead of things. We don't go shopping, either. We have a flow of Whole Foods, CSAs, and fish/beef/other protein delivered by small-scale farmers. In the first two weeks of SiP, supply lines were dodgy. They're fine again now, more or less. Yogurt was a pain to secure, but milk wasn't, so we started making it, which is easy and better. Baking powder wasn't available, but cream of tartar was. I miss our local fish monger the most. I hope they survive. Same with your relatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 29 minutes ago, fxfox said: You thought that it would be a breakaway gap? At that stage? I mean we are already 30% or so off the lows. Who said anything about breakaway gap? There's no gap in the futures anyway. Just an orderly progression. ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 Doesn't get much more orderly. And the oscillators say not done yet. But I would expect them to lag the downturn by a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 LEE'S FREE THINKING Today’s Fed QE Purchases – $29.5 Billion Plus This Week’s Hidden QE by Lee Adler • April 17, 2020 • 0 Comments Here’s a table of today’s Fed QE purchases. How much bang did the Fed get for its bucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 58 minutes ago, sandy beach said: I certainly hope for your sake and your families sake that you are immune! My wife's sister in Santa Clara County has it and she is stable on oxygen (verified with rtPCR). I believe two of my sisters may have gotten it with their husbands in Northern CO. The symptoms were very similar but luckily they all recovered. My wife and I are trying our best to not get it - we don't even go shopping. Locked in since late January. Who says that presence of antibodies may not indicate immunity. Whoever wins the immunity challenge goes on to the next round of Survivor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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