fxfox Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 Hello? Heeeellooo... I talk to myself. Top must be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 Isn’t this the old game of ramp with the futures overnight, and then distribute inventory during the trading day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Jimi said: Isn’t this the old game of ramp with the futures overnight, and then distribute inventory during the trading day? Yes, but that would mean a shift now. Last few weeks was mostly down Futures, up in the Cash market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, fxfox said: This is a numbers graveyard. Please translate into plain words. TIA. https://liquiditytrader.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 First data is out for the Stanford Serology study of Santa Clara county. They found the actual infection rate is 50-85 times greater than the number of confirmed cases. That implies a 2.49%-4.16% infection rate. In rural Telluride area is was 0.5%. In a random sample of pregnant women in NYC it was 15%. So that gives us our first estimate for the range across the US. Given that we have 678K confirmed cases that would put the actual infected range at 34-58 million in the states right now. Still tough to calculate case fatality rate as deaths lag by 17 days on average that we know of. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, sandy beach said: First data is out for the Stanford Serology study of Santa Clara county. They found the actual infection rate is 50-85 times greater than the number of confirmed cases. That implies a 2.49%-4.16% infection rate. In rural Telluride area is was 0.5%. In a random sample of pregnant women in NYC it was 15%. So that gives us our first estimate for the range across the US. Given that we have 678K confirmed cases that would put the actual infected range at 34-58 million in the states right now. Still tough to calculate case fatality rate as deaths lag by 17 days on average that we know of. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 How is that even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, sandy beach said: First data is out for the Stanford Serology study of Santa Clara county. They found the actual infection rate is 50-85 times greater than the number of confirmed cases. That implies a 2.49%-4.16% infection rate. In rural Telluride area is was 0.5%. In a random sample of pregnant women in NYC it was 15%. So that gives us our first estimate for the range across the US. Given that we have 678K confirmed cases that would put the actual infected range at 34-58 million in the states right now. Still tough to calculate case fatality rate as deaths lag by 17 days on average that we know of. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 I was thinking about the general thing this AM and plugged in a 100X's number to guess how many are or were infected now. This is a purely selfish enterprise. Trying to crudely judge my chance of infection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 We are collecting a lot more serology samples - so that error bars will get narrower over time. But it does appear the cat is out of the bag in the U.S. Santa Clara got infected very early but we also were one of the very first to close down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, DrStool said: How is that even possible? Possible if the vast majority show minimal or no symptoms. Which is almost a sure thing but the degree is still huge. This all becomes political because, well, you know or should. I've spent 6 weeks or more trying to figure out how Wuhan could see their huge drop in cases, and please try to forget if their numbers are bunk. They aren't bunk by hundreds or thousands of percent. To my mind the only explanation is many many people were infected. recovered fine and have immunity,for now. I could be wrong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 day cycle projection 2862 done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 How can it be that this virus kills some people in such a grotesque way, and causes such severe illness in others, and yet 90% of people show no symptoms. Is that normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 If those infection rates are correct, when do we reach herd immunity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 Is it tradable? I mean, is this really tradable. I think so. The buy setup was obvious yesterday afternoon, but selling on the open, not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 If you gave 100% weight to resistance and no weight to momentum, well, ok, but really. Who would do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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