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Erased 4/13/20


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4 hours ago, fxfox said:

Amazin dot bomb keeps the whole market from falling apart.

It will be the last man standing. Why? Because Bezos is a Wall Street buddy. It is as easy as that. 

The S&P 500 is basically 50-100 companies (maybe less) that matter.

could be less in the future.......

>: Will be less with the help of the FED and friends.......

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47 minutes ago, Jimi said:

Confidence is funny.

All the boolish stuff is because of the Fed & fiscal effort, and related confidence that those two forces will overwhelm the economic/financial consequences of pandemic.

So, POS rallies and 1%ers are made ever-more-whole.

Okay... but it's been $6 trillion or something to get us here.

What if they're not omnipotent, and prices start to slide.  If the confidence game is thereby surrendered, what is left?

Imagine a situation where fed & fiscal intervention actually begins to engender diminished confidence.

It could happen - for example, in a herd-panic out of dollar assets.

Not saying it's going to.

But just need to mount the counter-narrative to what has become prevailing wisdom that the lows are behind us, that you can't fight the Fed, and that central authorities can backstop anything.

Anything.

They can't. That's Truth with a capital "T."

I think the global impact is just so big and the magnitude of the consequences for the real economy on a global scale is so huge that it is not really controlable.
if there wouldn‘t be the election this year we would be already much lower. Wall Street wants Trump. That‘s the problem. Thry will do anything possible to keep this thing up. New all time highs would be a bit too much, but around 2800 or so would be a level which Trump can sell to the public.

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ES 2813 right now, NDX 8485.

That was it for the bear case. It is over. Market is much too strong. They buy the FANG‘s and friends like Tesla hand over fist and that punps the whole ship up. Every time one thinks this thing fizzles out another up leg comes. 

As I said the other day, when the 38 fibo acts as res and then price pushes thru the 50 fibo will not stop it. That‘s what we see right now. The last hope for the bears - the 1929/30 bear analogy - is therefore destroyed. Price didn‘t go above the 50 fibo in 1929. The last major attack of bears was last Tuesday. Once that got erased, that was the final sign that the bear has no chance.

I thought, and at the core of my heart still think, that this whole thing is too big, that it gets out of hand and that it is uncontrolable. But that doesn‘t seem to be the case.

This is not your grandpa‘s stock market anymore. Today there is immediately a concerted action by all major central banks, FED, ECB, BoJ, PBoC. The reaction time is much shorter than in the decades before. Since 2008/09 the market behaves differently. Many trading models which worked till then stopped working. Maybe we underestimate the role which indexing plays. The impact of that could be far bigger than most think. No wonder that the FANG‘s never really cracked during this downmove, One thing is clear: As long as the FANG don‘t crack to the downside there will be no prolonged bear market. 

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