DrStool Posted April 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 22 hours ago, Jimi said: What happened with Japan the past 20 years (i.e., running up to 240%/GDP without seemingly any crisis) was supported, arguably, only by the commercial expansion of China and the greater recourse to leverage in the U.S to buy all its crap... an exquisite dysfunctional commercial relationship. The whole world got to play the game of allowing Americans to run deficits and accumulate debt which supported China's industrialization and all the commercial benefit that adhered to other G7 economies from that (as capex purchases). And let's not forget that a whole lotta exuberance in the form of debt formation in mainland China the past 10 years also helped all parties to pretend their way through a vast circle-jerk of permanent prosperity delusion. Is the policy solution really going to be the Fed monetizing ever-escalating quantities of public debt, which the Treasury turns around and hands out in one way or another? This crisis is so freaking different. In 2008/09, they had to backstop the largest Wall Street banks, insurers, and automobile companies to limit down-stream collapse... and mop up foreclosures over multiple months. It was morally repugnant ("No banker left behind"), but it was easy to administer. The overnight shattering-from-below of the national small business ecosystem is not so easily repaired. 10 million out of work in only the first two weeks draws into question in my mind whether Federal "loans-to-grants" or anything else they may dream up has any chance at "fixing" this in a short term the down only 30% seems presently to discount. There are just too many incremental customers lost. So, 90-day forbearance of commercial leases and mortgages and rent, and whatever else, only postpones the reckoning... it implicitly assumes that if we can just sort of cobble stuff for a quarter, then... what? Come July 1st, we will all come out of quarantine and fill the bars, restaurants, airports & hotels? I don't think so. How many freaking mortgages are headed for default & foreclosure in the next six months? How much commercial retail is going to shutter without near-term hope for some new enterprise to move in? We're going to monetize debt as a solution to years of leveraged excess? I don't believe in miracles. What he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 6 hours ago, SiP said: A lot of people compare current market sell-off to GFC, but I think there is fundamental difference here. GFC was about constant betting (and failing) on bottoms in economic activity. This time we know exactly where will be the bottom - it will be lockdowns lift-off. So obviously it's still betting, we don't know for sure when it happens, but a different one. Medical rather than economical, and we all know the exact trigger. Please don't attribute your own ideas to "everybody knows." You are the first and only person I've seen to say that. The issue here is not the virus. It was merely the pin that pricked the greatest, most widespread, internconnected and complex asset bubble the world has ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 I've said it before and I will say it again. Jubilee. Debt forgiveness for citizens, not public corporations. Let them fight it out over the scraps and for Gods sake don't Maiden Lane the garbage or even try to because there is no way to do it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted April 6, 2020 Report Share Posted April 6, 2020 The Sunday Night JAM JOB........ right after that Friday at the bell paint job...... Free money (for some) still works wonders...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted April 6, 2020 Report Share Posted April 6, 2020 How did I get so lucky to be around so many bright people. Jimi you essay kicked ass and Doc your deconstruction gives me pause. From my world - In America 38 states are already reporting serological results (i.e. antybody tests to SARS-Cov-2) with less than 5% infection. NY 36% NJ 42% LA 25% MA CT MI 20% DC 15% WA 8% IL CO 16% PA 12% God I love being an American were we can openly share results in real time. More data to come. These are very small samples so far. We're just getting warmed up on this methodology. But this will be key to killing this epidemic. I can't stress out important this data will become after a few weeks. We are going to be processing via robotics millions of these test results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 6, 2020 Report Share Posted April 6, 2020 If Europe doesn‘t bring the Futures down that‘s gonna be a MEGA upside gap for S&P cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted April 6, 2020 Report Share Posted April 6, 2020 Back to 2640...... make it look good.....All in one night........ Print and Pump Prosperity Phorever...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 6, 2020 Report Share Posted April 6, 2020 Since a few days job offers in M&A virtually exploding in Germany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 6, 2020 Report Share Posted April 6, 2020 I would feel VERY uncomfortable if 2640 gets broken. I have seen it simply too many timesM that if the 38 fibo acted as resistance and price goes then thru after it got rejected a few times first, the 50 fibo will then NOT stop the price advance. Given the magnitude and impact of this crisis, price should definitely under no circumstances go above the 50 fibo, normally it shouldn‘t even reach it. IF price goes above the 50 we are in a complete new ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 6, 2020 Report Share Posted April 6, 2020 Number of new infections drop for the fourth straight day in Germany. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-infections/germany-reports-fourth-straight-drop-in-daily-rate-of-new-coronavirus-infections-idUSKBN21O0BV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 6, 2020 Report Share Posted April 6, 2020 ES right now 100 points above fridays close. This thing is just completely exploding to the upside, it doesn‘t stop, my oh my... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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