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Not as Bad as It Looks 4/2/20

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Brace for the ‘deepest recession on record,’ says BofA anal cysts, as jobless claims surge to 6.6 million

BofA sees between 16 and 20 million job losses, which could send the unemployment rate, which stands at 3.5% as of February’s report, surging within a few months to 15.6%, which would by far outstrip the unemployment rate during the 2007-09 recession.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brace-for-the-deepest-recession-on-record-says-bofa-anal cysts-as-jobless-claims-surge-to-66-million-2020-04-02?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

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ZH demonstrates the fact that alternative views of monetary matters have been deeply entwined with American right wing ideology, or just simply prejudices, since the 1950's when the John Birch society

The margin man coming round again. Other than that, the money the Fed is pumping in should keep the system afloat. You're wasting your time thinking of "reasons." Utter waste of time. It's always and

Found it Sip - thanks! https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/help-us-like-you-were-helped-after-war-italys-virus-hit-cities-tell-germany/articleshow/74913288.cms

More on the IRA withdrawal rules in the bailout bill.  The thing is I am at least thinking about the option of taking a big chunk out of my brokerage IRA account because a bank deposit is to my mind safer than a brokerage account. Or maybe Treasury  Direct. Has anyone used that?  Besides the waving of the 10% penalty for early withdrawal under the rules  you will see discussed, no longer applies to me,  there is sort of an option deferring the income taxes for 3 years. There is something about needing to prove the need. As if the IRS is going to be able to check that. Anyway in worst case scenarios paying taxes on it is better than not having it at all. Some number on a screen wouldn't mean much.

This is  all just thinking out loud about the almost unimaginable. Wherein even money may not mean much. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiehopkins/2020/03/30/cares-act-drastically-changes-required-minimum-distribution-rules-for-2020/#4668f4a719a0

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Some time around 2008 they made it a capital offense to use the "D" word. They're allowed to call it the "deepest recession on record" or "five times more severe than the post-war average" or "a recession unlike any other", but calling it a depression is a bridge too far. Guess we can't handle the truth. I suppose it's in keeping with the times. Just like how WHO wouldn't call it a pandemic until it was obvious to every third grader.

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7 minutes ago, Jorma said:

More on the IRA withdrawal rules in the bailout bill.  The thing is I am at least thinking about the option of taking a big chunk out of my brokerage IRA account because a bank deposit is to my mind safer than a brokerage account. Or maybe Treasury  Direct. Has anyone used that?  Besides the waving of the 10% penalty for early withdrawal under the rules  you will see discussed, no longer applies to me,  there is sort of an option deferring the income taxes for 3 years. There is something about needing to prove the need. As if the IRS is going to be able to check that. Anyway in worst case scenarios paying taxes on it is better than not having it at all. Some number on a screen wouldn't mean much.

This is  all just thinking out loud about the almost unimaginable. Wherein even money may not mean much. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiehopkins/2020/03/30/cares-act-drastically-changes-required-minimum-distribution-rules-for-2020/#4668f4a719a0

I looked at that too but I'm not sure if you need to prove if you or a family member had COVID19 or if it could be just due to the downturn. I wouldn't mind taking out some and paying only taxes and not returning the money but I'm guessing you have to be sick. If anyone knows please chime in. 

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3 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

I looked at that too but I'm not sure if you need to prove if you or a family member had COVID19 or if it could be just due to the downturn. I wouldn't mind taking out some and paying only taxes and not returning the money but I'm guessing you have to be sick. If anyone knows please chime in. 

The taxes are deferred up to 3 years, not waved.  Also maybe it could be put back in. Lots of options. If one qualifies like proving you got sick but how is the IRS going to check that?  Just kicking it around.

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9 minutes ago, Jorma said:

The taxes are deferred up to 3 years, not waved.  Also maybe it could be put back in. Lots of options. If one qualifies like proving you got sick but how is the IRS going to check that?  Just kicking it around.

If I took it out - it wouldn't be going back in. There are other things to use the money for besides stocks. So just not paying the 10% penalty would be cool. But not worth getting infected for. So I'm still in my bear bunker. 

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

 The Fed is propping up the entire world.  

I thought yesterdays offer to repo FCB's Treasury holdings was a fun touch. I'm sure you will tell us where that shows up on the H41.  I'm waiting for SDR's to kick in and I don't have a clue how they work.

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9 minutes ago, Jorma said:

I thought yesterdays offer to repo FCB's Treasury holdings was a fun touch. I'm sure you will tell us where that shows up on the H41.  I'm waiting for SDR's to kick in and I don't have a clue how they work.

It will show up in repos. Table 1 segregates them into foreign and domestic, I think. Have to check. I use table 4 mostly. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jorma said:

To state the obvious. If by some remote chance that a vaccine is announced any bearish bet would be a disaster.

It would be the biggest single day upmove in market history. It is as simple as that.

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4 minutes ago, Jorma said:

To state the obvious. If by some remote chance that a vaccine is announced any bearish bet would be a disaster.

There are over 50 vaccines in research. The closest endpoint won't be until June so I think shorting into anything by mid-May would be vaccine safe. But treatment news (non-vaccine) could come earlier. 

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