fxfox Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, SiP said: 10 million people in two weeks unemployed in US. At the end of Apr it will be 20 Mio, maybe even more. All we got were 30% down in the S&P. Priceless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 That NFP tomorrow will go to the moon and even beyond is already "priced-in" as they say. The low is in, forget it. That was it. 2200 is the ultimate low. Hard to accept, ok, but one has to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, fxfox said: "The market" simply says: Corona will end sooner than most think and there will be no Great Depression 2.0 Will the market be right? Will the central banks be right, they define the Market...... >: an old article during the original QE, now we have Infinite QE + https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fed-caused-93--of-the-entire-stock-market-s-move-since-2008--analysis-194426366.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 Oil above the hourly EMA200 for the first time since Feb 21. Looks like a short squeeze now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 Miracles happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 Cue Jack Buck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 Everyone knew the unemployment numbers would be the bad. I agree that was "priced in." But that's the tip of the iceberg of the bad news coming. I'm still thinking we'll have a waterfall Monday morning and eventually retest the lows. Sometime over the next month plus in quarantine people are going to get shocked by the death count, infected family members, friends, coworkers & neighbors, junk bond defaults, downgrades, bankruptcies, out of business signs, etc. And who knows what is going to happen in the EM space or even in the developed world. This is not the bottom. But if we do make it back up to the 50 fibo it'll be time to unload longs and reload shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 that monster spike in oil was only due to a tweet from Trumpinski, where he said that he "hopes" and "believes" that the Saudis and Russians agree to a 10 million barrel cut. My gawd, both even didn't talk with each other yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 When I see these kind of "humps" forming the whole thing is like the exponential modeling done by Didier Sornette during the dot com crash and the financial crash. This is typical of these types of moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, sandy beach said: When I see these kind of "humps" forming the whole thing is like the exponential modeling done by Didier Sornette during the dot com crash and the financial crash. This is typical of these types of moves. Could you please elaborate on that a bit further? I know that Sonette tried to predict bubbles, but I do not really get your point here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 Well, the chart simply shows that the post news kneejerk didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 Markets don't "price in." They rise and fall on the sea of liquidity. And in the very short run, there's a lot of random noise related to news and the short term positions of a few whales. As humans, we always want to read meaning into things were there is none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 What was the market "pricing in" at 3390? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 Look at the daily chart. A big nothing burger. I can't predict which way this will break. 8 week cycle tuned MACD still bullish. RoC non-committal but weak absolute level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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