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Did the Fed Buy Time, or Buy Catastrophe? 3/30/20


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22 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

This is a very helpful link - you can view all of US but the top drop down let's you look at numbers for your own state for bed, ICU and ventilator shortages. This is from WU and based on their model I would say this will start of noisy (wrong) but as time goes on will get more and more accurate. So you can get a pretty good idea if you should stay in your state if you are at risk. California is in good shape in terms of ICU/Beds but we need more than a thousand ventilators. New York needs to massively expand. 

http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

nice link

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I think those trillions might as well have had gas poured on them and lit on fire because they are just going to disappear. We will have huge medical bills and massive capital destruction. Sure we'll spend it all but on the things that really don't add them much to inflation outside the inflation of essential food, water and medical care. The rest is going to pay off debt that would otherwise default and towards one time medical care expenses. 

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28 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

I've been busy reading about the disease so much I really need to catch up on my reading on the economy so I can understand this move. 

I think you've been using your time wisely - I don't think all the reading in the world is going to make sense of anything economic.

Ultimately, the economy is levered to the infection, but not in any linear manner.  We have the original over-valuation, the sudden-stop, the stimulus, the Fed, the shelter-in-place, and the latter's prospect for delay/suspension and ensuing secondary infection cycles; and, additional phases of monetized stim-you-less.

That's only at the parochial domestic level....

 

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2 minutes ago, Jimi said:

I think you've been using your time wisely - I don't think all the reading in the world is going to make sense of anything economic.

Ultimately, the economy is levered to the infection, but not in any linear manner.  We have the original over-valuation, the sudden-stop, the stimulus, the Fed, the shelter-in-place, and the latter's prospect for delay/suspension and ensuing secondary infection cycles; and, additional phases of monetized stim-you-less.

That's only at the parochial domestic level....

 

My head hurts. 

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7 hours ago, DrStool said:

The Fed injected around $600 billion into the markets and the banking system last week. That’s about $2,000 for every American, and it was just one weekly installment. All in the valley of Death rode the 600. We are the 600 and the Fed is leading us into the valley of Death.

Meanwhile banking indicators suggest that the sickness is getting worse, not better.

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„C’est magnifique, mais ce n’est pas la guerre, c’est de la folie“ 😉

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20 minutes ago, Jimi said:

Where's the S&P 38% fibo-nacho?

at 2650. EMA 200 weekly at 2665. so that‘s a congestion area, two big resistance levels, you can add to that the downtrendline, so the level around 2650 is a tripple res area. That also means IF they break above it then bears are in trouble. Would expect a monster move than, because folks would play stop&reverse. 
We also have to see how market will react to NFP on friday. If number is shockingly bad, but market goes up then we know that bears are in big trouble...

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We've had a our first 2 deaths here in Saskatchewan. 30 new cases on Saturday and 22 cases reported on Sunday, bringing our total to 176. The amount of delusion here in Canada and the US is mind boggling. Things aren't going back to normal no time soon.

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2 hours ago, Jorma said:

Don't confuse the economy with the market averages.  Especially at this point when virtually none of the new money, probably approaching a trillion bucks,  has trickled out of the financial system.

 

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1918 is the model. The roaring 20s were right behind. But it was the prime of the automobile revolution and there was no massive credit bubble yet. That didn't come until the mid-late 1920s. This one is much, much bigger.  

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