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Did the Fed Buy Time, or Buy Catastrophe? 3/30/20


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The Fed injected around $600 billion into the markets and the banking system last week. That’s about $2,000 for every American, and it was just one weekly installment. All in the valley of Death rode the 600. We are the 600 and the Fed is leading us into the valley of Death.

Meanwhile banking indicators suggest that the sickness is getting worse, not better.

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The loan growth isn't surprising since the news ticker has been full of companies maxing out their lines of credit. $50 million here, $100 million there is adding up fast.

Banks may not be the lead source of credit for awhile as the Treasury with a $500bn war chest of 'loans' with more on the way as needed says Mnuchin this AM, funded by Fed printing,  presumably for friends of Trump and who won't be, and the Fed's who knows how many billions or trillions of POMO and TOMO going towards corporate debt. Well that's my idea right now. 

The more I think about it the more the Treasury becomes a source of credit, acting as a conduit of Fed printing might be the most profound change.

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10 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Remembering The Charge of The Light Brigade

by Lee Adler • March 30, 2020 • 0 Comments

S&P ES Futures Chart

Last week’s Fed intervention reminded me of The Charge of the Light Brigade. 

Reminds me of a scene from a favorite novel, The Bamboo Bed by William Eastlake.  An infantry company pinned down at a low point in the jungle by a larger force and thus doomed, has a "mad minute". Just shooting non stop for a minute, so they can live one more minute.

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Who is Hugh Hendry?
Just watched him get interviewed on Bloomberg.

He observed that the VIX exhibited strength during this rally, which is perverse. I was noticing that last week and wondering, “WTF”? He said he’s only observed it one other time - in Japan. 
 

Then he started describing an unlikely fanciful world where VIX “pivots” and explodes northward... and while some are long equities making 5%, in fact, the monster money is made long VOL at 5,000%. 
 

It was fascinating, not entirely clear, but it was a departure departure from the “prevailing wisdom” one otherwise hears.

 

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