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DrStool

Fed Swears to Preserve, Protect, and Defend Moral Hazard 3/26/20

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I suppose the retest of the low and if it's successful will depend upon if US virus deaths total 150,000 or 1.5 million.

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6 minutes ago, jp6 said:

During Weimar Republic in Germany stocks done well.

Unlimited Printing with unlimited spending should be good but not for someone holding Cash.

 

https://investmentmoats.com/stock-market-commentary/contrarian/stocks-performed-hyperinflation-weimar-republic-germany/

Venezuela won that game, too.......

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Markets are restoring their vitality. Liquidity is back, bonds market stabilized, jobless claims digested, EM FX rebounding, equities well bid. 

 

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The mechanisms that have developed to create and keep money within the financial sphere are not broken, they have been strengthened. The Wiemar example is thus a poor analog. 

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Base breakout measures to 3100. 

I think we're 20% off the lows. CNBC calling the new bull market yet? 

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7 minutes ago, SiP said:

Markets are restoring their vitality. Liquidity is back, bonds market stabilized, jobless claims digested, EM FX rebounding, equities well bid. 

 

Yes, seems so. Although that will also mean, that there are short sellers who can built up positions again, right?

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4 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Yes, seems so. Although that will also mean, that there are short sellers who can built up positions again, right?

Larger short positions are bullish. 

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So let's assume the corona thing will not be as bad as thought: The FED will then not draw that money back, right? Cause the pressure from Trump will be sky high. So we would see S&P at least at 4000 or even 5000 by October.

How can we see the lows again if on a day like this ES is up almost 200 points since the data came out??? How should that work, if FED does not stop with injections and the stimulus packages all over the world stay in place???

 

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THe news does not matter. THe Fed is pumping in a month's worth of old QE, EACH DAY! 

The only question is the unintended consequences. 

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1 minute ago, DrStool said:

THe news does not matter. THe Fed is pumping in a month's worth of old QE, EACH DAY! 

The only question is the unintended consequences. 

the question is: WHEN will they occur? Next month? This year? Or in 2030?  Or even beyond?

It is always the same: Once the low is in, bears widen the time frame when the next swoon dive should occur. There is than talk about that "the system" is rigged since decades, they gonna quote Chomsky and whatnot...

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30 times original QE. Think about that for a moment. Think about what that implies. 

Now, for a little perspective. 

tvc_c22998607e4a4c7e7d150a5acaac5d77.png

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500 billion bought 400 points. So they need another $1.5 trillion to get back to the highs, and that's IF the cost doesn't rise as stock prices rise. ANd those costs WILL rise. There will be sellers. 

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So my money is on this being a bear market rally that will flame out. 

But now doubt they'll want that bull market call. 

Oh the absurdity. 

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