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DrStool

Remain Calm, All is Well 3/25/20

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Doesn't it seem like Oxford has a better purview on this than Imperial College?

Also, this from NYT:

Quote

In a briefing on Wednesday, Mr. Cuomo said there were indications that social distancing measures put in place in New York appeared to be helping — but that more needed to be done. “The evidence suggests that the density control measures may be working,” he said.

On Sunday, for example, the state’s projections showed hospitalizations doubling every two days. By Tuesday, the estimates showed hospitalizations doubling every 4.7 days, he said — adding the caveat that such a projection was “almost too good to be true.”

He cited encouraging news from Westchester County, where the rate of infection has slowed. “We have dramatically slowed what was an exponential rate of increase,” Mr. Cuomo said. “That was the hottest cluster in the United States of America. We closed the schools, we closed gatherings, we brought in testing, and we have dramatically slowed the increase.”

 

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Jimi I am blind until we do serology tests like they are finally doing in the UK. So I can't answer that yet. I'm not talking rtDNA tests. I want to see a random sample of California testing for antibodies against this beast. Than I can say for sure. Sorry I can't answer that yet. Stay safe!

 

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Couldn't it be that part of the observation being ascribed to social distancing is actually the effect of the virus having effectively saturated the population, so that the curve is bending in part from saturation itself?

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What I can say Jimi is UK studies in serology i.e. actually testing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are being done now and we should have those results in "days" they claim. That will give us precise data on case fatality rates that we desperately need and a view of the actual spread in the population. I'm evidenced based in my ideas so I really am willing to wait "days" to get that data because I don't trust the data from Wuhan. 

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In late February, my youngest got sick - stopped eating, low grade fever, diarrhea. We kept him from school - we all had flu shots.  Then, suddenly, he started having severe abdominal pains. We contacted our pediatrician by phone, and he said get him to ER - feared appendicitis. I was already on the verge of pulling the boys from school because of COVID, and absolutely hated having him go to ER. They were going to operate, then a second surgeon said it wasn't appendicitis, then they offered multiple different diagnoses all night - stones, strep, stomach flu, food poisoning. His abdominal lymph glands were swollen - that was all they observed. Gave him a morphine drip, saline, antibiotics, and discharged him the next evening. Our family went into effective self-quarantine - but everything started shutting down soon thereafter anyway.

We have been kicking around for days & weeks ever since whether what he had - which landed him in ER for the first or second time (he has very high pain threshold) - was coronavirus. Older son was mildly ill the weekend before - almost missed a basketball tournament. Wife & I haven't remembered anything from the period, but perhaps we are one of the legion of asymptomatic carriers.

Anyway... I would love a blood test.

 

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Until we get that data I'm going to be looking at ICU saturation in the US and excess dead bodies that can't be handled. And I'm going to be looking closely to see if the curve in bending down here. Right now I see Italy is really starting to bend down and I like that very much. In the US there are so many artifacts in the data because we are basically testing de novo a population already infected in say NYC that I can't make anything out of it. So I need to slow down and wait for that data. 

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2 minutes ago, Jimi said:

In late February, my youngest got sick - stopped eating, low grade fever, diarrhea. We kept him from school - we all had flu shots.  Then, suddenly, he started having severe abdominal pains. We contacted our pediatrician by phone, and he said get him to ER - feared appendicitis. I was already on the verge of pulling the boys from school because of COVID, and absolutely hated having him go to ER. They were going to operate, then a second surgeon said it wasn't appendicitis, then they offered multiple different diagnoses all night - stones, strep, stomach flu, food poisoning. His abdominal lymph glands were swollen - that was all they observed. Gave him a morphine drip, saline, antibiotics, and discharged him the next evening. Our family went into effective self-quarantine - but everything started shutting down soon thereafter anyway.

We have been kicking around for days & weeks ever since whether what he had - which landed him in ER for the first or second time (he has very high pain threshold) - was coronavirus. Older son was mildly ill the weekend before - almost missed a basketball tournament. Wife & I haven't remembered anything from the period, but perhaps we are one of the legion of asymptomatic carriers.

Anyway... I would love a blood test.

 

I had no idea. So how are you and the kids now? 

And I agree - this has been in the US long enough to start doing serology testing for Ab.. You can't do that at the beginning because it takes say 6-10 days to get an immune response really going. But this has been in CA, WA and NY long enough for some serious research. 

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We're all fine. Hunkered the eff down since March 3rd, effectively. Incubation periods long passed, assuming even he may have had it. Abdominal pain was not one of the symptoms they considered early on - it as all about fever/cough/travel. My wife & he sat in ER for 3 hours at Kaiser Children's in Oakland - COVID prospects were being moved quickly elsewhere. In the weeks since, diarrhea & abdominal pain is considered symptomatic. He has no recollection of any impact on taste/smell.

Weird, right?

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Wow Jimi I had no idea how personal this was to your family. I'm so sorry. You must be very shaken by this experience. I know that I would be - and I know that I am! It does sound like you may have had it. If that is the case at least you may be blessed with immunity for a couple of years. If they start testing here I hope you test. I am so glad you all survived this. 

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Jimi,

my goodness! Hope you and your family are doing better now! It is a catastrophe when the kids are sick and one doesn‘t really know what they have. 😔 

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Sandy,

thank you very much for your scientific input! Very much appreciated.
A lesson from the corona crisis has to be that there has to be much more spent for basic/fundamental research. But when a health care system is completely privatised, that won‘t happen. See, fundamental research doesn‘t generate a cash flow, so listed companies won‘t do it or only in a very small extend. The US has to roll-back the privatisation of every single part of life. That would make the US society as a whole richer, not poorer.

The total privatisation is only a neo-conservative belief, like tickle-down. There was never a scientific evidence that both concepts are for the benefit of the society as such.

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