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Remain Calm, All is Well 3/25/20


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2 hours ago, fxfox said:

Regarding the 70s: The nominal low in 1974 was never seen again. The real life for normal americans became even hard after 74, the economy was in recession, social unrest, murder gangs and whatnot. But the nominal low was already behind us and was not even tested again.

That is what we do: We analyse and make our decisions based on NOMINAL price charts. We do NOT use inflation adjusted price charts. No chart service does this.

Furthermore we have to take into account that the 70s had to deal with two major external shocks: First the abortion of Bretton Woods and then the oil crisis. It took years for the global economies to adopt and deal with it. During all that time the nominal price low of 1974 was never seen again, it got not even tested.

I was there. The first bottom was in October, successfully tested in December.  

The crash in the summer of 74 was  low volume affair 3-8 points per day on the Dow. Nobody saw it because after 6 years of a secular bear market, nobody cared. 

I'd lay odds here that this low, if it even was the low of this leg, was just the first of what will be a long grinding bear market. 

Also, wouldn't it be funny if in a day or two the market averages are 20% off their lows, what will the TV talking heads say? New bull market?  

Probably won't happen. 

 

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More news ticker fun.  "Clear Channel Outdoor drowns down $150 million under revolving credit facility."

In all seriousness one thing will save the system and one will buy it time.  The savior;  vaccine.  To buy time; widely available and simple to administer treatments to prevent cases from destroying lungs and killing patients. 

Money alone isn't going to do it. 

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I use the "Maginot Line" as a Joke........Just like the CB's/Algos

>: the channel(s) are where it is......Unless the channel becomes a "chunnel"

>:: Just walking it higher, and looking for a green open

>::: If the last hour of the NYSE trading day is the "hour of power"

what is the hour before the NYSE trading day starts?

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52 minutes ago, MisFit Kid said:

I use the "Maginot Line" as a Joke........Just like the CB's/Algos

>: the channel(s) are where it is......Unless the channel becomes a "chunnel"

>:: Just walking it higher, and looking for a green open

>::: If the last hour of the NYSE trading day is the "hour of power"

what is the hour before the NYSE trading day starts?

The Golden Shower Hour

 

I love the Maginot Line. It's so French. Build an impregnable defense so the enemy can just go around it. Such a great market analogy. 

Now, in a death defying act of sheer terror, I'm going to the supermarket.  There I will have close contact with a cashier who has had close contact with 10,000 people in the last couple of weeks.  

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3 hours ago, DrStool said:

  

I was there. The first bottom was in October, successfully tested in December.  

The crash in the summer of 74 was  low volume affair 3-8 points per day on the Dow. Nobody saw it because after 6 years of a secular bear market, nobody cared. 

I'd lay odds here that this low, if it even was the low of this leg, was just the first of what will be a long grinding bear market. 

Also, wouldn't it be funny if in a day or two the market averages are 20% off their lows, what will the TV talking heads say? New bull market?  

Probably won't happen. 

 

I’ve been thinking they need to jam this over the next week and a half, until March 31.  So when quarterly statement comes out in April it doesn’t look so bad.

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