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DrStool

Reversal Night 3/24/20

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8 minutes ago, Jorma said:

Feel is one thing. It ain't about feelings.

If I remember correctly the market swoon dived another 30 or 40% after the FED announced QE back then. So there is hope for bears.

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Blackrock will manage purchases of bonds, and I presume bond derivatives since the Fed is going to buy bond ETF's, for the Fed.

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25 minutes ago, GregFokker said:

Biggest one day rally since 1933, they're saying. 

Yep. 1933 aka THE low.

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There's a huge difference between now and 2009. The Fed started direct QE in March 2009. It worked immediately. 
It started direct QE this time in late September. It worked for a while but the bubble had become so brittle that it collapsed anyway.  

That was at the end of a 30 month bear market. Psychologically the players were ready..

This on just started. 

This one faces trillions in new Federal Debt. All other nations area also issuing massive amounts of debt to fund stimulus. 

So there's QE, and maybe it's starting to work on a delayed basis. 

Or maybe this is just another countertrend bear market rally, and this is October 30 1929, not March 1933.  

Which came AFTER the bank holiday. 

I don't know if this is the bottom or not, but I doubt it.  

 

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  • Taken together, the programs are considerably more aggressive and have been done in quicker fashion than what happened during the 2008-09 financial crisis.
  • By the time it finishes, the Fed could take its balance sheet to as high as $10 trillion, one anal cyst estimates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/fed-is-helping-the-markets-more-than-it-did-during-the-financial-crisis.html

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For some perspective on just how fast the Fed is moving, it intends to purchase $625 billion this week alone. That’s more than the entire $600 billion second leg of quantitative easing that ran for eight months, from November 2010 to June 2011.

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12 minutes ago, SiP said:

For some perspective on just how fast the Fed is moving, it intends to purchase $625 billion this week alone. That’s more than the entire $600 billion second leg of quantitative easing that ran for eight months, from November 2010 to June 2011.

That figure must include the alphabet soup shit, which has zero impact on the market. It just bails out hedge funds and asset backed paper issuers. Another disgraceful expansion of socialism for the rich and death for the poor. 

The end game will be that there's no one left to support those at the top.  The structure of society will ultimately collapse and we'll enter another dark age.  

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End of the world or not I'm not going down without a fight! I'm not about to let a god damned depression ruin my day! 

All stool reserves are recalled to active duty. 

 

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34 minutes ago, DrStool said:

That figure must include the alphabet soup shit, which has zero impact on the market. It just bails out hedge funds and asset backed paper issuers. Another disgraceful expansion of socialism for the rich and death for the poor. 

The end game will be that there's no one left to support those at the top.  The structure of society will ultimately collapse and we'll enter another dark age.  

But they tell us they are helping the households and businesses.......

Image

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6 hours ago, DrStool said:

There's a huge difference between now and 2009. The Fed started direct QE in March 2009. It worked immediately. 
It started direct QE this time in late September. It worked for a while but the bubble had become so brittle that it collapsed anyway.  

That was at the end of a 30 month bear market. Psychologically the players were ready..

This on just started. 

This one faces trillions in new Federal Debt. All other nations area also issuing massive amounts of debt to fund stimulus. 

So there's QE, and maybe it's starting to work on a delayed basis. 

Or maybe this is just another countertrend bear market rally, and this is October 30 1929, not March 1933.  

Which came AFTER the bank holiday. 

I don't know if this is the bottom or not, but I doubt it.  

 

Didn‘t the FED introduce some kind of QE in Oct/Nov 2008 or were that just those bailouts for some banks? March 2009 was in my view not after a 30 month long bear, I think it began in Jan 2008, but I get your point that the QE in Mar 09 came after a multi month downmove and that‘s completely different from that what we have right now.

The question is why the did start QE again in Sep 19. I think if Trump would not have set the FED under such huge pressure in Dec 18 than there would not have been another QE. 
I ask myself how all that stimulus and all that debt can be funded without raising taxes, both corporate and personal taxes? All those countries will have to raise taxes, this will reduce private consumption. Taxes per capita will rise and that can‘t be good for the performance of stocks.

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6 hours ago, DrStool said:
The end game will be that there's no one left to support those at the top.  The structure of society will ultimately collapse and we'll enter another dark age.  

There was a time decades ago where CEO‘s knew that their workers have to earn enough so that they are aible to buy their produced stuff, like cars and such. That mindset is long gone. If not before, it began in earnest during Reagan‘s full assult on the union‘s.

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5 hours ago, potatohead said:

But they tell us they are helping the households and businesses.......

Image

That means NO collateral? So basically free money? That would be the same like those NINJA loans which led us finally to 2008/09, right?

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