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DrStool

Reversal Night 3/24/20

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37 minutes ago, Jimi said:

ESPN guy. Anchored SportsCenter for many years and has nationally syndicated radio show. 

He wants to kill the Lt. Governor of Texas’ grandparents or something. 
 

image.jpeg.20a3c903dabb2c57d4284e35b7691f26.jpeg

Beat me to it. Small minds think alike. 

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Herd immunity. Is that like...

when everybody is dead?

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This is a Channellingus market. 

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There's Tamara's headline. 

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2 minutes ago, Jimi said:

Thanks for the link. Read it.

Two quick points. First, there's some discussion of "reinfection" that would draw into question "the assumption that infection elicits protective immunity." Second, aren't they also presupposing a single strain? I don't know enough underlying science, but let's say for lack of better terminology "the Italian strain" is far more aggressive than the "Taiwan Strain" - and so, mortality is differentiated between those two countries based less on response than on exposure. That might muddy the model, no?

We've been tracking the mutation is minute detail and you can see the information here:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Technically each branch could be termed a "strain" or clade or haplotype. We are seeing about a mutation per week per strain. So maybe 17 or 18 mutations so far for each branch. That's in a genome of about 30K nucleotides. We would predict based on what we know about this class of virus that most of these mutations will not change the activity of the virus at all. Only rarely will a mutation actually cause a change in virulence. So at this point I think we can reasonably assume we don't have strains yet that have different levels of virulence. Now give this virus a year or more? Yes by than we may see a strain emerge that has augmented functions or even less fatal properties. But we'll be looking for key mutations effecting certain sections of the genome such as changes to the binding site of the S Protein and if we see that we can compare them to the original strain on a wet bench and actually measure how much the difference these changes make using ELSA. But I doubt we have any strain yet that is any different than any other strain functionally. 

The second point about reinfection - we've followed these cases closely and for good reason. But at this point it is very possible that the cases of reinfection were actually more likely cases were we had a false positive test and the person appeared to be negative but were actually positive. So it appeared they were reinfected. And this seems to be backed up by the fact that people are building a good immunity to this virus and that the virus sticks around a lot longer than we first suspected - close to a month. Now as it mutates over a longer period of time say one to three years we might get another strain that our acquired immunity (antibodies) won't recognize. In that case our immunity may not work anymore and worse our immunity might actually make the infection much worse the second time around because it may suppress our immune response. We see that with dengue fever for example. And this would be extremely dangerous. 

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1 hour ago, fxfox said:

Dan Patrick is a facist at heart. It is almost unbelievable what he said.

As are a majority of Americans.  Many are actually very nice people, for the most part.

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„The four most dangerous words in investing are, ‘this time it’s different'”. 

Franklin Templeton

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1 hour ago, Jorma said:

As are a majority of Americans.  Many are actually very nice people, for the most part.

Where have I heard that before. 

Take a Nazi to lunch this week. Find out that they're a regular bunch this week. 

 

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We just had a series of aftershocks. 

I don't like it.  

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The market terrifies me when it crashes down and annoys the crap out of me when it crashes up. 

Clearly the dealers do not have the ability to maintain ordely markets in either direction. 

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This feels exactly like March 2009. The crisis was roaring in the real economy,  but stocks bottomed. It began with denial in the bear camp. „This is only short covering. Temporary thing, soon over.“ 

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Corporations will live and thrive. Those that don't will have their useful assets taken by the survivors.  Defaulted debt will be swept up by the Fed making it one big Maiden Lane. Out of sight out of mind. XX millions of households will be impoverished. No matter.  All the better really. Or so one could characterize a possible outcome. 

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31 minutes ago, fxfox said:

This feels exactly like March 2009. The crisis was roaring in the real economy,  but stocks bottomed. It began with denial in the bear camp. „This is only short covering. Temporary thing, soon over.“ 

Feel is one thing. It ain't about feelings.

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