Jump to content

Gap City Rollers - 3/18/20

Rate this topic


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 110
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

They can guarantee nominal value but they sure as hell can't guarantee purchasing power.  The inflation is dead thing will be like the death of stocks in 1982. 

I think SIP didn‘t realize that those links which we see in his post were not copied into the Stool Board. It is 6:50 a.m. in Europe right now. Guess once he woke up and logs into the Stool he will fi

I swear it feels like we're headed for hyperinflation. 

23 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

We just picked up my 85 year old mother and sent her to live in rural Vermont with one of my sisters to isolate her. It wasn't safe for her to attend services anymore. She's obviously in a high risk category. 

My wife and I are still in the East Bay and haven't decided what to do yet.

One thing that concerns me about the Sacramento Hospital is the ratio of high risk patients to ICU beds with ventilators. The foot hills around Sacramento include a huge population of the elderly most of whom are high risk so I can see them overwhelming the hospital ICU beds easily. That's going to be true in any retirement oriented town. So finding younger healthier demographics is best. Like a medium size campus town with a good research hospital.  

I'm reading about 30-50 scientific papers a day right now. We have some promising but not validated studies on treatments underway. The most promising yet is hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and zinc. But we need a double blind study and a longer follow up study and there are side effects. France has enough does for 300,000 cases so we are going to be getting a peer reviewed paper on the outcome soon I hope. If they can pull off a solid treatment than this could become a much less critical issue overnight. A small trial with 24 patients cleared the virus in six days. That's the best we've seen.  

In the meantime anyone with hypertension, diabetes, heart or kidney disease or if you smoke it is time to listen to your doctor and get your numbers under control. Don't blow off any daily medication you know you need to take. These are serious comorbidities that for most people can be brought under control with daily monitoring and medication. Anyone who is immunocompromised will need to take great care. If you can keep your numbers in check you have a good chance of not getting a series case of COVID19 and instead be one of the 80% who walks away with "just the flu." 

As far as towns, I like the medical care here in the Bay Area. We always thought if we decided to leave (and we are thinking like you Jimi) we could get the heck out of California completely. So as far as towns it really depends if you need that long growing season or if one crop a year will do it. If there is one thing this country has lots of it is good productive soil. But I haven't chosen a town quite yet. Colorado has some great campus towns as does New England but you have to be OK with snow.  I also like the area just South of Yellowstone - Jackson Hole, WY area. You can find good clean living for the kids in any of those areas and still get in a crop by late Spring. 

 

Great post.   

Link to post
Share on other sites

They can guarantee nominal value but they sure as hell can't guarantee purchasing power.  The inflation is dead thing will be like the death of stocks in 1982. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, DrStool said:

They can guarantee nominal value but they sure as hell can't guarantee purchasing power.  The inflation is dead thing will be like the death of stocks in 1982. 

Would you expect stocks to hyperinflate too? Normally they should in that case, but maybe I miss a consideration.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Jimi said:

Appreciate your thoughts.

Foothills east/south of Sacramento have been where I've been looking. Out the 4, 88, 120. Hadn't thought of the elderly-skewed population. Additionally, I understand from a friend with a second home that you can't get fire insurance anymore. I love the central coast around SLO, but it's always struck me as so freaking expensive... but that may change abruptly. I like where Lompoc is on the map, but don't know it.

We've lived in Santa Barbara / Goleta / Hope ranch on and off for a few years since the 1989. I love that area. Over the hill - lots of great ag land around Santa Ynez, Los Olivos & Solvang, but fairly expensive. It is a slow moving pace and not a lot going in the Solvang triangle but fairly nice. I don't like Lompoc at all. A lot of people there either work for the prison or Vandenberg AFB. Kind of low rent and you have some issues with toxins in the water supply causing cancer. But outside of there it can be nice in the surrounding area. SLO and SB both have the campus thing going on which is good for culture and medical care. If you look down there you have to really check out who you buy your water from and for how much, if the title is clean and if the geology is good (mud slides) and if your are insurable. There are a lot of legit parcels and houses that aren't up to code. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, DrStool said:

They can guarantee nominal value but they sure as hell can't guarantee purchasing power.  The inflation is dead thing will be like the death of stocks in 1982. 

Seemingly, right?

Helicopter Drop + Disrupted Supply Chains = CPI Inflation

Monetary & Fiscal policy have supported asset prices, because Labor is massively subordinate to Capital... Labor hasn't had negotiating power for decades, therefore no gains in real wages, and therefore no purchasing power.

If it goes on with the USG supporting wages without any economic output (because workers are told to stay home), cash will chase food and other essentials.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Would you expect stocks to hyperinflate too? Normally they should in that case, but maybe I miss a consideration.

He means 1982 after Volker hiked rates way up to kill inflation and the market tanked. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The headline fiscal "solutions" in the trillions presuppose the USG can continue to float debt ad infinitum at near 0.00%.

It's the biggest bubble out there. The Mother Bubble everyone overlooks.

If it collapses, well.... I just can't even imagine.

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

We've lived in Santa Barbara / Goleta / Hope ranch on and off for a few years since the 1989. I love that area. Over the hill - lots of great ag land around Santa Ynez, Los Olivos & Solvang, but fairly expensive. It is a slow moving pace and not a lot going in the Solvang triangle but fairly nice. I don't like Lompoc at all. A lot of people there either work for the prison or Vandenberg AFB. Kind of low rent and you have some issues with toxins in the water supply causing cancer. But outside of there it can be nice in the surrounding area. SLO and SB both have the campus thing going on which is good for culture and medical care. If you look down there you have to really check out who you buy your water from and for how much, if the title is clean and if the geology is good (mud slides) and if your are insurable. There are a lot of legit parcels and houses that aren't up to code. 

Meant "illegitimate parcels" as in people built homes on property that they didn't actually own or that are not legally separate parcels and then try to sell them. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

There isn't enough money to inflate, stocks and Treasuries and all matter of credit which is already dead, and REIT's and oil, and cities,  and airport authorities and airlines and on and on and on, much less XX million households.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Jimi said:

The headline fiscal "solutions" in the trillions presuppose the USG can continue to float debt ad infinitum at near 0.00%.

It's the biggest bubble out there. The Mother Bubble everyone overlooks.

If it collapses, well.... I just can't even imagine.

Exactly. And we've never been so complacent about it. We just assume we can write a check for a trillion if we need to. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jimi said:

The headline fiscal "solutions" in the trillions presuppose the USG can continue to float debt ad infinitum at near 0.00%.

It's the biggest bubble out there. The Mother Bubble everyone overlooks.

If it collapses, well.... I just can't even imagine.

Well TNX is north of zero.  1.266

Link to post
Share on other sites

What's with the dollar today? Least ugly turd? It rallied from 3/9 just like bond rates. GBP down close to 4%.

Insane ridiculous moves in gold stocks day to day. 20+% moves up and down one day to the next. Must be totally illiquid. How many Randolph Dukes have been carted out.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • ×
    • Create New...