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DrStool

Gap City Rollers - 3/18/20

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1 minute ago, DrStool said:

3 day cycle projection on cash 2100. 

That's where Trump came it.  That's a bit too cute,  for any final bottom. Not enough.

It turns out that Boeing is the perfect metaphor for the age.

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Whoa. I think that may be conservative. 

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If I extrapololololate this bend in the last 15 minutes, it points to 2115. 

 

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ES Daily crash channel lower trendline 2250. 

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8 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Whoa. I think that may be conservative. 

Well we've got the Fibs from 09 for targets. 

ESfib-1.png?ssl=1

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Well, pardonnez moi là, but this is getting to be a bit much. The phrase "dover sole" has even begun to suggest itself to me. 

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45 minutes ago, specie said:

Hey Doc,

I didn't see anybody mention that the Fed is now accepting equities from dealers for collateral

What did you just say? 

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14 minutes ago, GregFokker said:

Well, pardonnez moi là, but this is getting to be a bit much. The phrase "dover sole" has even begun to suggest itself to me. 

We won't know when it's done until they take it out of the oven. 

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Solid bounce off support at 2263. 

tvc_54edc46192eaa3d12db83d2490a5b5cf.png

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They need to clear 2340 ES, otherwise, death. 

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2 minutes ago, DrStool said:

They need to clear 2340 ES, otherwise, death. 

How many times do they have to die here anyway?  Admittedly the patient is looking a little pale.

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1 hour ago, Jimi said:

Holy fricking cow.

I'm talking to my wife about leaving the Bay Area for 18 months, because I'm not convinced that schools will reopen next year, and we will all be left homeschooling them anyway, and our work will slow, and the charms of the urban landscape change with +10% unemployment and a killer virus, and we can afford to float cheaply for an extended period because WE SAVED MONEY AS WE EARNED IT FOR THE UNFORESEEN.

Thinking 3 hours in any direction from Sacramento - for hospitals and possibly airports for our work, if there is any and flights still work.

A 19th century rural exercise - 2 acres, crops, chickens, bees, a goat. Somewhere off the beaten path, below the snow line, with decent soil.

I'm being dead serious.

Sandy, got any thoughts on that question? Towns to suggest?

We just picked up my 85 year old mother and sent her to live in rural Vermont with one of my sisters to isolate her. It wasn't safe for her to attend services anymore. She's obviously in a high risk category. 

My wife and I are still in the East Bay and haven't decided what to do yet.

One thing that concerns me about the Sacramento Hospital is the ratio of high risk patients to ICU beds with ventilators. The foot hills around Sacramento include a huge population of the elderly most of whom are high risk so I can see them overwhelming the hospital ICU beds easily. That's going to be true in any retirement oriented town. So finding younger healthier demographics is best. Like a medium size campus town with a good research hospital.  

I'm reading about 30-50 scientific papers a day right now. We have some promising but not validated studies on treatments underway. The most promising yet is hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and zinc. But we need a double blind study and a longer follow up study and there are side effects. France has enough does for 300,000 cases so we are going to be getting a peer reviewed paper on the outcome soon I hope. If they can pull off a solid treatment than this could become a much less critical issue overnight. A small trial with 24 patients cleared the virus in six days. That's the best we've seen.  

In the meantime anyone with hypertension, diabetes, heart or kidney disease or if you smoke it is time to listen to your doctor and get your numbers under control. Don't blow off any daily medication you know you need to take. These are serious comorbidities that for most people can be brought under control with daily monitoring and medication. Anyone who is immunocompromised will need to take great care. If you can keep your numbers in check you have a good chance of not getting a series case of COVID19 and instead be one of the 80% who walks away with "just the flu." 

As far as towns, I like the medical care here in the Bay Area. We always thought if we decided to leave (and we are thinking like you Jimi) we could get the heck out of California completely. So as far as towns it really depends if you need that long growing season or if one crop a year will do it. If there is one thing this country has lots of it is good productive soil. But I haven't chosen a town quite yet. Colorado has some great campus towns as does New England but you have to be OK with snow.  I also like the area just South of Yellowstone - Jackson Hole, WY area. You can find good clean living for the kids in any of those areas and still get in a crop by late Spring. 

 

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Appreciate your thoughts.

Foothills east/south of Sacramento have been where I've been looking. Out the 4, 88, 120. Hadn't thought of the elderly-skewed population. Additionally, I understand from a friend with a second home that you can't get fire insurance anymore. I love the central coast around SLO, but it's always struck me as so freaking expensive... but that may change abruptly. I like where Lompoc is on the map, but don't know it.

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