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On Today's Program- Mahler's Funeral March 3/13/20


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S&P 500 monthly

Blue is linear fibo

Red is log fibo

THE low at 2450 doesn't make sense to me. At 2030 ok, but more sense at 1800 (likely) or 1500 (outside chance), but again 2450 is a "non-level" there is nothing there. Fugazi.

 

SnP500monthly.png.3d7c59a3e960e85618ad900fbe03d102.png

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1 hour ago, fxfox said:

S&P 500 monthly

Blue is linear fibo

Red is log fibo

THE low at 2450 doesn't make sense to me. At 2030 ok, but more sense at 1800 (likely) or 1500 (outside chance), but again 2450 is a "non-level" there is nothing there. Fugazi.

 

SnP500monthly.png.3d7c59a3e960e85618ad900fbe03d102.png

Speaking of fibos, just playing around with some numbers this morning. It's still kind of early here and haven't double-checked my math, but noticed this: from October 3, 2018 intraday high to "the" December 26, 2018 low, the Dow declined 5239 points. So far from Feb 19 to March 12, the Dow has declined 8414 points. 5239 x 1.618 = 8476 points, a difference of only 62 points. The Dow has also nearly touched the 377 week EMA as of yesterday's close, I think something like 150 points short of it. Last touch or close below 377 weekly was in 2011. But to be fair it tore through the 144 and 233 levels this week like they weren't even there. 

S&P is a little different. Using the same dates as above, S&P declined 593 points on that last leg down in 2018. Since Feb 19 the S&P has declined 915 points. 1.618 x 593 = 959 points, a difference of 45 points. 

So, Dow is within 1% of 1.618 vs. the prior decline, but S&P is within about 5% thus far. There are probably a million other contrary reasons why the market won't or can't bounce a bit from here, I don't know. But I wouldn't be shocked at some type of decent bounce from at or near yesterday's levels, especially given the level of panic the last couple of days. Either way we are in for a few interesting days ahead, methinks. 

 

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