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Kate Smith Sings From Quarantine 3/11/20

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2 hours ago, SiP said:

Dear Fx FOX. Of course I'm biased since I live in EM but believe me. If there is panic, there a huge moves in PLN and HUF. They are not pegged. There is no ERM2 corridor, Poland will not change PLN to EUR.

Do you see the spikes in the past? HUGE move in 2008 (middle of screen in XXI)  or even than smaller one during 2012 (euro crises). Now we are flat. Its amazing.

Stocks are sold off, bonds are bought but I dont see massive panic in FX. Of course there was move in EURUSD, there was some one bigger move in USDJPY, but for the last couple days, after 20% selloff I would love to see massive panic to belive that its a bottom. IF i dont see panic, I dont buy this selloff (longs). This means, at least for me, that this sell off will last longer. with some ups but more downs. 

eurpln.PNG

You are right that there is no official peg. But it is obvious that there is some kind of agreement that the EUR/PLN rate should not fluctuate too much.

But yes, I agree, in times of stress we should normally see some kind of bigger moves in EM currencies.  

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Absolutely, positively, definitely, the bottom. RIght here. 

The market is already way ahead of them.  The Fed has no choice. It must cut to stay in line with the market. This is what happens when the Fed corners a market, in this case, the T-bill market. 

"Ding dong!" "Margin call!" Gold enjoys a bid. It gets sold. Whatever enjoys a bid, shall get sold.  

One of these days the market will stop listening to Trump.This thing is like a Tsunami and will take him into the abyss.
The engineered double bottom from tonight will fail too.

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Tomorrow is ECB day

Maybe they will announce big QE. Scheduled meeting. Im looking for for big move. The question is - which side, up or down. Dunno. ECB day should strongly move the market.

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Holy crap.

Did Trump just say that both people & goods are going to be subject to 14 day quarantine from Europe... but not the UK?!

He's using the offing virus for...  trade policy?

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OMFG.

THE EFFING CRAZY PEOPLE RUNNING THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT.

AS THE CRISIS EXPANDS, IS TRUMP GOING TO EXPAND TRADE RESTRICTIONS AS HIS RESPONSE???

IF HE HAD THROWN OFF HIS TARIFFS, EVEN I WOULD HAVE APPLAUDED - THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS GOING TO BE AGAINST THE WALL FROM THIS HEALTH/ECONOMIC/FINANCE CRISIS.

BUT HE HAS SIGNALED RECOURSE TO TRADE BARRIERS AS THE "SOLUTION" TO "SOLVE" HIS ADMINISTRATION'S INACTION?!?!

OMFG - WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE.

SELL. SELL. SELL.

 

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Sell, sell, sell indeed Jimi. You are spot on about the economy (as you always are).  I have studied every member of the COVID-19 Task Force and they are the best of the best. Assuming this is a true reflection of their advice (and I think that it probably is as I know what their opinions are and what the opinions are from the WHO). God help the EU and God help us. But this is not a trade negotiation. This has to be stopped now. And it will mean a major recession or even depression possibly. But these opinions are based on firm science. No one is taking this with any ease. No one asked for this. Stay safe. 

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We are looking at a $50 billion dollar plan here to support small business, tax relief and enact emergency action for workers who are ill, in quarantine or caring for those with coronavirus...

They would not be doing this if this was not serious. 

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All these knee jerk reactions are starting to look a whole lot more ominous than the virus itself.

 

All Ords down -5% although I have a sprinkling of green on the screen, mainly miners.

 

Nikkei and Sth Korea -3-4%.

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Let's start with Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, does this guy sound unreasonable to you? He is top of the field. He is the guy who basically *did* the HIV/AIDS thing in SF. His career spanning every POTUS since then is head of this COVID19 team. Listen to him from this clip back in January when this was getting started. Now he is entirely behind this: 

https://edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/audio-player/18197306

 

 

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