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Kate Smith Sings From Quarantine 3/11/20


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20 minutes ago, fxfox said:

EUR/USD went up from 1.08 to 1.15 within a few days the other day. That‘s everything but an ordinary move.

Sure, everyone knows that. Closing longs in funding currency. Most of them were located in bonds and stocks 

Im talking about something different. Im talking about big moves in EM FX. I dont see them. Take a look at USDPLN USDHUF. Some build up in USDMXN USDZAR but nothing amazing and panic. 

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5 minutes ago, SiP said:

Sure, everyone knows that. Closing longs in funding currency. Most of them were located in bonds and stocks 

Im talking about something different. Im talking about big moves in EM FX. I dont see them. Take a look at USDPLN USDHUF. Some build up in USDMXN USDZAR but nothing amazing and panic. 

Thanks for this observation. 

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13 minutes ago, SiP said:

Sure, everyone knows that. Closing longs in funding currency. Most of them were located in bonds and stocks 

Im talking about something different. Im talking about big moves in EM FX. I dont see them. Take a look at USDPLN USDHUF. Some build up in USDMXN USDZAR but nothing amazing and panic. 

So you wanna say that there is no stress in the system? There was and is quite tbe move in MXN or w3 look at different charts. HUF as well as PLN are more or less pegged to the Euro.

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11 minutes ago, fxfox said:

So you wanna say that there is no stress in the system? There was and is quite tbe move in MXN or w3 look at different charts. HUF as well as PLN are more or less pegged to the Euro.

Dear Fx FOX. Of course I'm biased since I live in EM but believe me. If there is panic, there a huge moves in PLN and HUF. They are not pegged. There is no ERM2 corridor, Poland will not change PLN to EUR.

Do you see the spikes in the past? HUGE move in 2008 (middle of screen in XXI)  or even than smaller one during 2012 (euro crises). Now we are flat. Its amazing.

Stocks are sold off, bonds are bought but I dont see massive panic in FX. Of course there was move in EURUSD, there was some one bigger move in USDJPY, but for the last couple days, after 20% selloff I would love to see massive panic to belive that its a bottom. IF i dont see panic, I dont buy this selloff (longs). This means, at least for me, that this sell off will last longer. with some ups but more downs. 

eurpln.PNG

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