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DrStool

The Crash is Here 3/6/20

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Croatia is a stone's throw from Italy. So far there are 9 reported cases here. A few of them are here in Zagreb.  Meanwhile, back home in PA, schools are shutting and the gov has declared a state of emergency. 

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10 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Croatia is a stone's throw from Italy. So far there are 9 reported cases here. A few of them are here in Zagreb.  Meanwhile, back home in PA, schools are shutting and the gov has declared a state of emergency. 

There are very close ties between Croatia and nothern Italy, eapcially Trieste region, but Lombardy too. The figures in Croatia will quickly go up. Take care!

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Trieste is the connection point by bus.  It's an interesting city. I've been in all these affected places on the buses. 

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11 hours ago, DrStool said:

There's no shortage of Treasuries, that's for sure. This so called shortage is apprently manufactured because of the collapse in rates and mortgage convexity.  A thunderous V reversal and rocket launch is coming on yields. 

 

 

 

Just to make sure that I got that right:

You say that market rates will RISE? So the price of the 20+ year bond (right now circa at 166) will FALL? Correct? You expect that happening soon? In a a few weeks or so? Thanks Doc and sorry for your divorce, I wasn't aware of that. 

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I don't know the timing, but if the thing about this being mortgage convexity hedging, sure, it will reverse.  

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Russian economy is more dependent on oil than US economy. 

 

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Doc, 

Warsaw sucks in terms of air quality. Warsaw is regularly in top 10 of cities with worst air quality. There are 30 Polish cities in top 50 (!) due to smog. Unfortunately, due to Democratic processes for the last 30 years (after the fall of communism) there wasn't any politycal party that wanted to stop this coal nonsense. We are the worst performance in Europe and the only country which didn't sign climate deal for carbon neutral till 2050. 

Zagrzeg and Croatia is way better, and Croatia has way better seaside. 

I would not talk too much about far right. It's just not true. Poles are very friendly. very. 

all the best to all of you

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Holy crap. Dow futures open down a thousand s&p down a hundred thirty. 

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I'll be in Warsaw April 3-11

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6 minutes ago, aussiebear said:

Holy crap!  All Ords open for 1.5 hrs and down 5%!!

 

53 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Holy crap! Cruel Earl down minus 20%!!!!

This may have been said too many times, but:
THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT,

things are falling apart.

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ASX200 index here in Australia down 6.6% for the day. After the market closed the ASX200 futures dipped another 0.8% to 5700 points.
But we are flying blind down here with the S&P500 futures market closed. This is all very weird🤒

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