Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Hypertiger

Getting Closer To My Masterwork

Recommended Posts

Not that it will change anything, but do you think we will see a mad dash by the lemmings to buy housing once mortgage rates tick up a bit? A "last chance saloon" type deal? Buy now or forever regret your life for not buying a mcmansion when rates were so low!

 

Just before they bulldoze the mcmansion over the cliff

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest yobob1
Not that it will change anything, but do you think we will see a mad dash by the lemmings to buy housing once mortgage rates tick up a bit?

 

Only if rates were to start rising tommorrow morning. The problem is there is a foot race going on by banks beginning to deal with defaults (mortgage credit standard tightening at the margins, first uptick recorded since 1988 just occurred) and rising unemployment, regadless of the totally false govt. statisitcs. Secondly the lemmings are pouring money into bond (12 billion+ inflow in January) funds as opposed to equity funds. Sorry Doc but it hasn't been 401 money inflow supporting the equity markets. Wrong diagnosis. (January outflows of 474 million and estimates for February are 12 billion+ outflow). It is entirely feasible that you would see mortgage rates rise as the bonds backing them are increasingly called into question while treasuries fall in a safety bid....for a while at least. In the short to intermediate term though, mortgage rates will likley track treasuries. In other words by the time mortgage rates start rising significantly there will be few if any qualified buyers who haven't already bought. If you look at Doc's mortgage charts you can clearly see we already have a solid downtrend in purchase applications in spite of the lowest rates in 40 years

You might also want to take note that both median and average home prices are slipping meaning re-fis are going to get tougher regardless of rates.

 

Of course this will never happen in Southern California or in Fartpolios gated community.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not that it will change anything, but do you think we will see a mad dash by the lemmings to buy housing once mortgage rates tick up a bit?

If house prices are going up, probably so. I contracted to buy a house in Aug. 1980. House prices were roaring, but after bottoming in March 1980, so were interest rates. Mortgages were ticking up from 9% to 10% to 11%, as the Fed cranked Fed funds higher by half a point every 2 or 3 weeks. Several colleagues at work were frantically scrambling to get on board the "Housing Inflation Express" before the fare was raised again, while cursing the ball-busting bastard Volcker as he mercilessly tightened the screws. (Uncle Al is a pussycat by comparison.)

 

I ended up with a 12.5% mortgage, adjusted to a T-note index every 3 years. It now bears interest at a crushing ... 4.5%! B)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hypertiger.. I just want to say thanks for your dedication to a cause you believe in.

 

That cause is to warn as many people as possible of the fact that you see a systematic collapse of the United States economic system within the next 24 months. (correct me if I am wrong)

 

I did get the opportunity to talk to you on the phone and would like to give my take..

 

Do you guys and gals remember the twilight zone episode when the gentleman was on an airplane flight and he looked out the window to the airplanes wing to see the most terrifying thing..

An alien looking monster was smashing the wing with what looked like an axe or a pipe of some sort.

He alerted the flight crew and thinking he was crazy, they sedated/tied him up. (assuming he was nuts)

 

When the plane landed they service crew found the wing was smashed to pieces and had no way to explain the damage.

 

The one everyone thought was crazy reminds me of Hypertiger..

 

Nobody likes to hear predictions of gloom.. no matter how well founded they may be!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That is a great parallel to Hyper crying out in the wilderness, but it isn't the whole story. The passenger saw this gorilla out on the wing, tearing it to shreds, and obviously trying to make the plane crash. So, when the passenger can't get anyone to listen to him, he smashes the window and goes out to fight the creature. He knocks it off (I think he actually has a gun and shoots it -- so much for THAT episode looking plausible to today's kids), is dragged back in by the flight attendants who of course don't believe him and he is carted off to the loony bin -- his reward for saving the flight from crashing. Then indeed the mechanics puzzle over why the hatch to the engine is missing, etc.

 

The mere fact that the whole thing is impossible from a scientific standpoint (no way you can have wingwalkers on modern airplanes traveling at high speed at high altitudes), nor could you break a window without serious complications for the plane) pales in comparison to the truly bizarre fact about that episode.....

 

The lead actor was none other than William Shatner!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hypertiger........

I'll stop lurking here for a moment. That was a very good and well informing post to those that don't have a clue? I must commend you for your efforts!!! I would add something here, but you seem to have it covered...Bubble bubble, we are brewing trouble!

 

GoodTrades!

King

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HyperTiger...... ON FIRE !!

 

 

fire.gif

 

ani-fire.gif

 

 

 

Dat's a helluva peice Sir.

My Hat is off *hic*.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

OK. . . OK. . .. So . . .OK.. . .so that means that in 35 years Hyper is going to be selling cheap airline tickets on the telly for some internet ticket auctioneer! Right? :blink: It does all make sense now!

 

Seriously, Hyper you are something. As always you walk us right through the whole game down to the checkmate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SG posted up his Deflation issues thread last night, and basically Hyper Tiger just slam dunked it...

 

The reason we havent collapsed big time yet is because credit is still easy... but as I also stated... subtle changes are afoot....

 

Nice work H.T.... you are gifted, and yes...I understand everything you wrote... and its all spot on... and when it hits... ee gads.

 

SG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Don?t worry we have a plan it?s called the Deficit Gamble we can just keep off loading the payment into the future 'indefinitely'? Sounds great!!!!

 

Banks have debt on the books that they know is bad -- both commercial and consumer. They won't write it off. Government supports hiding bad debt because if they force banks to fess up then the banks stop tossing the good money (lol) after the bad (debt) Result = more people dine at the soup kitchen.

 

It's like a slow motion train wreck. While the Fed struggles to control the crash Stoolies sit here in awe amazed at how long it is taking for the crushing end. Do I have time to jump the train?

 

edit

 

Lol, I think I need to bookmark Hypertigers post and read it a couple of paragraphs a day. I'm slow, but I'll get it. The charts help a lot, a lot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not that it will change anything, but do you think we will see a mad dash by the lemmings to buy housing once mortgage rates tick up a bit? A "last chance saloon" type deal? Buy now or forever regret your life for not buying a mcmansion when rates were so low!

 

Just before they bulldoze the mcmansion over the cliff

 

yes, buyers on the fence will take action. but, sellers that have been holding off selling, will add supply quickly to the market. prices on homes already listed will be dropped (after the initial jump in sales) as sellers will be afraid of not getting out and having to ride another cycle.

 

so after the initial surge in activity, the uptick in interest rates will "flip" psychology and it will be time to get out while the getting is supposedly good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!



Old Stool Depository


The Wall Street Examiner
Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner
Contact Us




Market Quotes are powered by Investing.com.
×