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DrStool

Contra Signal 3/3/20

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13 hours ago, fxfox said:

After just ONE week the bear is already dead. Price action today is even worse than I could imagine. Thought they would only make it to 3070. Shortest bear market in recorded history. PMI Figures from China absolutely catastrophic, but China Index up like a madman. That was the clue.

One can't fight the CB's.

In our lifetimes we will not see a 2000-2003 or 2008/09 bear market again. 

 

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LEE'S FREE THINKING

Today’s Target 3135, But Bulls May Fumble

by Lee Adler •  • 0 Comments

S&P Futures Chart

Stock Market Trading Setup for Tuesday, March 3, 2020 Hourly ES S&P 500 Futures Chart As of 7:30 ET, the S&P futures are on the verge of a reversal. If 30 84 breaks, then they should fall to 3000 quickly. But if it holds, it should make a run at 3150.

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5 day cycle projection 3175 

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I TOLD YOU THEY'D DO IT! 

 

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LIQUIDITY TRADER - US TREASURY MARKET TREND SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Rate Crash of the Century

by Lee Adler •  • 0 Comments

The patterns on the charts of T-bills and the 10 year note are unprecedented. Something terrible has happened in the market. The Fed will have to cut on Monday. Tuesday at the latest.

Quote

The 13 week T-bill rate crashed on Friday. This is a huge and unprecedented shock. We expect this rate to lead Fed moves gradually over a week or two. But I’ve never seen market rates move this far, this fast ahead of the Fed. It suggests that something truly terrible has happened in the market. If that’s so, then it’s likely that there’s more to come.

 

Rates were stable in January when net new Treasury supply was light. With the increase in supply in February, there was some upward pressure. With all of that supply absorbed, save for a settlement on Monday, rates have collapsed. The Fed has no choice but to ratify this move with at least a quarter point cut, and maybe more. 

 

 

I have no idea how the stock market will react to an emergency rate move. I’ll focus on that in the report to be posted this weekend.

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It's quite the spectacle . Every headline says "surprise rate cut", when the market had already cut them.  

 

$120bn in repos today. Seems like an awful lot to mop up after yesterdays $15bn in coupons went under water this morning.

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Exactly. I'm no soothsayer. I just observe and report. 

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Look at these moves. Slight break of channel, now just below. If it doesn't recover above 3067, look for explosive diarrhea. 

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6 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Look at these moves. Slight break of channel, now just below. If it doesn't recover above 3067, look for explosive diarrhea. 

If we drop hard here......Are you talking an explosion that covers the  entire bowl and underneath the rim as well?

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Been some time since I gave some commentary on the physical metals market.  Retail has continued to not be a big believer in this market. The buying is coming from larger players while the retail has been sellers. premiums on certain products have increased due to the price drop last week. My real guess for the price drop last week beyond margin calls is the ETF market. I think that market is a joke. The authorized participants may have been leasing metal to these funds as the price was rising. As the price went up and delivery risk became apparent, these players pulled the rug out to get investors to liquidate positions and get there leased metal back at lower prices. However the interesting part is that ETF holders dumped more money into metal ETFs while the price was dropping. I have said this many times, the system is not designed for delivery. At some point there will be a failure in some of these funds.

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