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World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Wavering wishes

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All Ords 5-day chart

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=AU:XAO&uf=0&

http://bigcharts.mar...com/default.asp

 

Buyers on board today leaving All Ords with a gain of +1.2%.  Energy +2.4% and Consumer Staples +2.2% were the main gainers with Gold down the most, -1.3%.

Over in Asia, China -0.1%, Hong Kong -0.2%, Japan +0.6%, India currently -0.2%.

UK/Europe going sideways: FTSE +0.6%, DAX +0.1%, CAC +0.3%.

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=UK:UKX&uf=0&

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DX:DAX&uf=0&

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=FR:PX1&uf=0&

http://bigcharts.mar...com/default.asp

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This pattern on the hourly bars is starting to look scary.  If it breaks through 2944, cover all shorts.  If it falls through 2904, short everything. 

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The world has gone from total rejection or ignorance of Lee's analysis of how QE and it's resultant liquidity in the financial markets causes stocks, credit instruments and many asset prices to rise, to a total acceptance.  While there is a mechanistic causal correlation it's good to remember there is a larger monetary foundation to why the system works that way.  The correlation between QE and rising asset prices works only in relation to the larger monetary system.  

I don't know if we are a day or 5 decades away from monetary dislocation.

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26 minutes ago, DrStool said:

This pattern on the hourly bars is starting to look scary.  If it breaks through 2944, cover all shorts.  If it falls through 2904, short everything. 

I'm hoping for 3100 in late September.  Steve Henrich's wedge and trend line.

 

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Been talking about "Sven's" megaphone pattern since May 5 with an expanded discussion on May 28.  http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2019/05/stock-market-long-term-chart-outlook/ 

Since then we've seen warning after warning, but no breakdown. The PPT has been hard at work.  

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16 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Was it mostly T bills?  It seem sort of stupid for them to buy coupons with the yield curve inverted. 

Could you give us a  history lesson Dr. Stool. Did the Fed ever buy coupons, except in perhaps occasional nominal amounts,  prior to March 09?   QE is in the end just an Open Market Operation.  Different because it was coupons.  Buying T Bills will not be called QE.   I suppose we should consider the possibility of massive Bill purchases. Which has the bonus effect of being an instant same day boost to the markets. Have to start watching the NY Fed  announcements everyday like the old days.  Well I didn't. 

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$3 billion in bills.  Proportioned according to current balance sheet levels. 

This is not QE. It's to stabilize the balance sheet by buying Treasuries to replace paid down MBS.   

No difference if bonds or bills. Cash to the dealers.  Cash is cash.   

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I'm still trying to get a history lesson and never seem to find the answer. Did the Fed ever buy significant amounts of coupons from 1913 to 2009?

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Significant? Like QE sized? No. Typically they expanded the balance sheet a few percent each year with POMO. 

WW2 was the exception. The Fed monetized the war debt, and redeemed it after.  

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