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aussiebear

World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Amenable attrition

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The Washington Post has the current official story about the debt  ceiling. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/07/22/emerging-budget-deal-likely-include-few-or-no-actual-spending-cuts-while-lifting-debt-limit-two-years/?utm_term=.3daa1052dfee

If they can get Trump to go along it should  be clear sailing to pass before the recess.  

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Trendline at 2984 must not be violated if bears are to prevail. 

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53 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Trendline at 2984 must not be violated if bears are to prevail. 

Now 2981

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BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY AND THE AIRLINES

So Warren B reverses his opinion of the Airlines as perrenial money losers and buys stock in all four big ones.

On the basis I presume that airline consolidation has created semi monopolies i.e companies with moats and pricing power!!!!!

UAL, South West, Delta and American.

But is such an indiscriminate purchase of all four justified??????

If you look at their free cash flows - its not justified.

South West has a Price/FCF of 9 - thats very good.

UAL ratio is 12 also good, Deltas is 20 which is high and America Airlines has negative free cash flow.

Why the great variation????????????

Because its all about CAPEX with the airlines. 

American spends so much on CAPEX each year that it does'nt make any free cash flow!!!!!!!!!

Berkshire should sell American Airlines and Delta. It should probably sell UAL as well.

And concentrate its investment on South West.

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Gotta push back below 2980 fast or else not good. 

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Drop below 2976 would be a triangle pattern breakdown. Often leads to a case of explosive diarrhea. 

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Abov 2984, bears will be the ones shitting. 

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Initial 2 day cycle projection 2985 done earlier but we now have a mini-triangle breakout. 

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27 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Abov 2984, bears will be the ones shitting. 

Doc, I really appreciate these intraday updates. But man, some days I just hate myself. I have managed to shake myself too early out of both a profitable long and a short today, all to wind up with only lunch money to show for it. I have been second-guessing myself on almost every trade for over a week. Think I need to step away from trading for a couple of days and get fitted for clown shoes.  🤡

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