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World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Timid toggling

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31 minutes ago, potatohead said:

U.S. Budget Gap Balloons to $739 Billion Despite Tariff Revenue

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-12/u-s-budget-gap-hits-739-billion-with-four-months-left-in-year

The U.S. budget deficit widened to $738.6 billion in the first eight months of the fiscal year, a $206 billion increase from a year earlier, despite a revenue boost from President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported merchandise.

The shortfall was 38.8% more than the same period a year ago, the Treasury Department said in its monthly budget review released on Wednesday. So far in the fiscal year that began Oct. 1, a revenue increase of 2.3% hasn’t kept pace with a 9.3% rise in spending.

I been yakkin bout dis. It's not the revenue. It's the spending.  Bullish for the conomy. Bearish for the bond market as supply is set to explode. Falling Interest Rates Illusion Leads Wall Street to Dangerous Wrong Conclusion

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I decided to go back to FL and just flip condos.  

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„Punish Gold“-move now. For whatever.

Given the circumstances an absolutly idiotic move to sell Gold before we go into weekend.

Yet another sign that the overall market is under full control of a force no one can get a grip on.

Sooner or later the market gets EVERYONE. See, the LTCM guys were no idiots. Who are we to believe that we found the holy grail with some rule of thumb liqui analysis? 

My bank is one of the biggest bond issuers in the world. We have hundreds of people in risk controlling alone. Those guys are fully aware of liqui stuff and its impact on the markets, CB policy and such. 

We here at the Stool have absolutely NO EDGE in anything we do. 

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

I decided to go back to FL and just flip condos.  

I love and admire your passion regarding market analysis Doc, but I think - although I know you are kidding - that this would be a smart move.

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6 minutes ago, fxfox said:

„Punish Gold“-move now. For whatever.

Given the circumstances an absolutly idiotic move to sell Gold before we go into weekend.

Yet another sign that the overall market is under full control of a force no one can get a grip on.

Sooner or later the market gets EVERYONE. See, the LTCM guys were no idiots. Who are we to believe that we found the holy grail with some rule of thumb liqui analysis? 

My bank is one of the biggest bond issuers in the world. We have hundreds of people in risk controlling alone. Those guys are fully aware of liqui stuff and its impact on the markets, CB policy and such. 

We here at the Stool have absolutely NO EDGE in anything we do. 

Commercials were loading up short while large specs were loading up on the long side the last few weeks. I guess the commercials are pulling the rug today. The retail physical market is very quiet. Has been for sometime now. A lot of selling by retail holders into the rallies. Dealers are struggling. Very few players are making any money in the physical market.

 

 

 

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Here it comes Lee. 

GOP in disarray as budget impasse threatens shutdown, deep cuts — and default

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/gop-in-disarray-as-budget-impasse-threatens-shutdown-deep-cuts--and-default/2019/06/15/6a61e6dc-8ded-11e9-8f69-a2795fca3343_story.html?utm_term=.f85d206fec3d

I know, they always work it out but they are using Oct 1 as the drop dead date. 

Then too the article just conceded that the administration can pick and choose which bill to pay beyond the previous vital things. Setting the stage for the Executive to take the power of the purse. If not now, someday.

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Oct 1 is military pension fund payment day. But they'll run out of money before that. 

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On 6/14/2019 at 1:41 PM, fxfox said:

„Punish Gold“-move now. For whatever.

Given the circumstances an absolutly idiotic move to sell Gold before we go into weekend.

Yet another sign that the overall market is under full control of a force no one can get a grip on.

Sooner or later the market gets EVERYONE. See, the LTCM guys were no idiots. Who are we to believe that we found the holy grail with some rule of thumb liqui analysis? 

My bank is one of the biggest bond issuers in the world. We have hundreds of people in risk controlling alone. Those guys are fully aware of liqui stuff and its impact on the markets, CB policy and such. 

We here at the Stool have absolutely NO EDGE in anything we do. 

Do you subscribe to my services? If not, how would you know? Seems to me that you'd be commenting on things about which you have incomplete knowledge.  

Given the financial condition of the biggest German banks, I'd question how knowledgeable they are too.  

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On 6/14/2019 at 1:46 PM, fxfox said:

I love and admire your passion regarding market analysis Doc, but I think - although I know you are kidding - that this would be a smart move.

Actually, I'm serious about it. I have identified a sizable anomaly opportunity in a local market that I know very well. It's a location and property type that is oversupplied, underpriced, and underappreciated, for which there's significant untapped latent demand. 

I have the time and wherewithal to do both this work, and that, so I have already started the ball rolling.  

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4 hours ago, DrStool said:

Do you subscribe to my services? If not, how would you know? Seems to me that you'd be commenting on things about which you have incomplete knowledge.  

Given the financial condition of the biggest German banks, I'd question how knowledgeable they are too.  

Having knowledge about liqui impact and actually making money with that are two pair of shoes. What we do here at the Stool is nothing else but market timing. Trying to time the market is VERY complicated and there are many out there who even say that it is impossible. I dont share that view entirely, cause even with an ass simple 50/200 MA crossover system you can beat the S&P 500 easily over the long haul, long only approach and when signal gets short you go in short term bonds, your maxDD will also be much better. To say that market timing never works is of course the sayi g of the mutual fund industry and people like Bogle are of course key figures and he was during his lifetime THE key advocate for buy and hold. 

On the other hand market timers have to admit that there are times, sometimes years or even a whole decade, where they underperform b&h lousily. We are living in such times now. There are many many systems which have performance problems since 2009.

I followed all your public stuff at Sure Money since you first said in Oct 2017 that one should get defensive. That was at roughly 2600. Now we are 10% higher. One can say thats not much. Ok. Fact is: Market made a new all time high after that. Then there came the NovDec 18 swoon dive and you were correct but than came the ass shaver move and your butt also got shaved. Right now it was not correct to go gradually cmpletely out of stocks beginning in Oct 17. it maybe would have been ok not to buy new stocks, but that was not your recomendation. The reco was to go out of stocks.

Regarding German banks: Biggest prob of Deutsche was that they wanted to become global player and be successfull at Wall Street. See it is a German bank. A German bank will never rule Wall Street. The Street is ruled by Goldman. American banks rule there not German ones. 

But hey, at least we can built cars 😁🏻

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5 hours ago, DrStool said:

Actually, I'm serious about it. I have identified a sizable anomaly opportunity in a local market that I know very well. It's a location and property type that is oversupplied, underpriced, and underappreciated, for which there's significant untapped latent demand. 

I have the time and wherewithal to do both this work, and that, so I have already started the ball rolling.  

Very smart! 😎

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1 hour ago, fxfox said:

I followed all your public stuff at Sure Money since you first said in Oct 2017 that one should get defensive. That was at roughly 2600.

What I wrote was that investors should sell rallies with the goal of being 60-70% in cash by January 2018.  Then I upped that to higher percentages gradually over the course of the year.        

My short term trading recos were different. Particulary in early January when I suggested SPY calls and continued to do so through April. I only had one put recommendation so far this year and it gained 59%.  

This week I have another call recommendation.  

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