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aussiebear

World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Nebulous nurturing

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All Ords 5-day chart

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=AU:XAO&uf=0&

http://bigcharts.mar...com/default.asp

 

All Ords gained +0.9% after forming a rising channel in the latter part of the day.   Hmmm the next move could be down ..  Miners +1.5% and Materials +1.4% were the biggest gainers with Consumer Discretionary the only red entry, -0.2%.

Over in Asia, China and Hong Kong closed, Japan +0.5%, India currently +0.2%.

Strong start in UK/Europe: FTSE +0.8%, DAX +0.7%, CAC +1.3%.

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=UK%3AUKX&uf=

  

  

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DX%3ADAX&uf=

 

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=FR%3APX1&uf=

  http://bigcharts.mar...com/default.asp

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Here is the conventional wisdom on the jobs report.

 

"Non-farm payrolls are predicted to add 185,000 in May following April’s 263,000 increase. Manufacturing will gain 5,000 positions after the prior month’s 4,000.  Private payrolls should rise 175,000 after 263,000 new posts in April. Government payrolls rose 27,000 in April. The U-3 unemployment rate is projected to remain at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings on the month will increase 0.3%, in May they added 0.2% in April. Annual earnings are forecast to be unchanged at 3.2% and the workweek to rise 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours."

I will not be surprised if they put out a headline number that is very low. I know, against Lee's tax work.  I mean how can you beat a headline like this.  https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1136902989371912193

 

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At this point, nothing would surprise me.  

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The economy is falling off a cliff. What could be better than that.

 

 

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10:21 on the news ticker. Bundesbank cuts 2019 GDP forecast from 1.6% to .6%.  

10:32  SPX up 10

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In 1974 I guess most of the oldtimers at the Street were convinced that we go down as much as in the 30s in percentage terms. We didnt. Right now all bears and all those who were around in 2003 and 2009 are trained to believe that any downmove isnt over until it reaches minus 50%. Thats why that wont happen. We in our lifetime will never ever see maxDD of 50% again.

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Doc,

I wonder - again - why your sophisticated stuff didnt see this horror upthrust comming? Like at christmas. All of a sudden out of thin air the most violent imaginable Saturn V monster move began. Your liqui stuff didnt predict this. Why not? And cause it didnt why still following it? The opportunity costs following that liqui stuff get higher and higher...

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51 minutes ago, fxfox said:

In 1974 I guess most of the oldtimers at the Street were convinced that we go down as much as in the 30s in percentage terms. We didnt. Right now all bears and all those who were around in 2003 and 2009 are trained to believe that any downmove isnt over until it reaches minus 50%. Thats why that wont happen. We in our lifetime will never ever see maxDD of 50% again.

Never say never. There will be liquidity failures in markets. My lifetime is another story. 

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