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World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Episodic enervation


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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

Their job is to execute policy, not make it. They can now go and make millions in the private sector.  

"I'm very surprised that both of them would do this on the same day with three days' notice," said Tom Simons, a senior economist at Jefferies in New York. Simons said Potter's job, as head of the central bank's open-market operations, is "arguably more important than being president of the some of the regional Fed banks."

https://www.americanbanker.com/articles/ny-fed-loses-top-officers-including-potter-in-rare-double-exit

There must be something up that's ultimately political but it might not have anything to do with policy per say. The articles says the Potter guy was hoping to be made NY Fed president but that was over a year ago.

I discount the job is more important than regional bank president if only because that job is so unimportant. In fact I think that job, Regional Fed Bank Pres,  might be the  most cush job in the world. A huge title carrying no power at all. The maintenance men at the NY Fed have a more important job.

Edit. I guess I should say the NY Fed presidents job isn't quite so cushy. There is a lot more day to day actual stuff that gets done thus more things and people to actually manage.

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Big Treasury supply Friday for a change. Still, end of month wanting to make as good as possible I suppose.

I see links to ZH with rumblings of liquidity crunch in China after a big bank failure there. Anything there should be taken under advisement of course but structural systematic risk can't be ignored on the chance we could have big trouble.  Then there is DB in a death spiral. 

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Lee, while you  liquidity/shortage of T bills explanation for the yield curve is good that doesn't mean that everyone who runs money isn't seeing the economic numbers contract around the world.  I've been waiting for the NY TImes, the arbiter of all that 'serious' journalists, talking heads and the riff raff talk about, to say the economy is slowing.  Then today they didn't say that, directly, they said instead"The Bond Market Is Giving Ominous Warnings About the Global Economy".  I figure by the end of the week someone or other will be quoted about the possibility of the R word. Maybe they will hold off till  next week.  Once that word makes it out into the mainstream stocks are going to have a problem.

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15 hours ago, Jorma said:

Lee, while you  liquidity/shortage of T bills explanation for the yield curve is good that doesn't mean that everyone who runs money isn't seeing the economic numbers contract around the world.  I've been waiting for the NY TImes, the arbiter of all that 'serious' journalists, talking heads and the riff raff talk about, to say the economy is slowing.  Then today they didn't say that, directly, they said instead"The Bond Market Is Giving Ominous Warnings About the Global Economy".  I figure by the end of the week someone or other will be quoted about the possibility of the R word. Maybe they will hold off till  next week.  Once that word makes it out into the mainstream stocks are going to have a problem.

Plenty of headlines using the R word.  

https://www.google.com/search?q=yield+curve+recession&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS726US726&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiZrffZpMPiAhUFT98KHTBQAaQQ_AUIDigB&biw=1536&bih=722

 

Treasury Yield Curve Interpretation Is Like Freud’s Interpretation of Dreams – Utter Nonsense

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The logic of the mainstream narrative follows the market. The market follows liquidity. Economic actors whose actions move the economic data, both businesses and high end consumers, follow the stock market.

What will they say and how will they act when the debt ceiling is lifted, supply explodes, yields soar and stock prices collapse?  Stagflation.  

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