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DrStool Dean of Stock Proctology

DrStool

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Posted

I'm no longer with them. Have been posting on WSE. Will generally do 2-3 posts a week.  Here are the latest. 

I'm still ramping up as I've devoted more attention to marketing lately.  

Lee's Latest Free Thinking

LEE'S FREE THINKING

Listen Now! Hollowing Out US Economy Will Lead To Cataclysm

by Lee Adler • 

Content hosted by iono.fm Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds, just follow the money. Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader tracks and shows you the monetary…

 

LEE'S FREE THINKING, MUST READ

Treasury Bill Interest Rates Stay Sticky Near the Highs

by Lee Adler • 

T-bill rates have been rangebound near the highs since December. The market hasn’t budged despite the widespread belief that the Fed will cut rates. The Fed will reduce its bloodletting rate from $50 billion to $35 billion per month in May, and will end the program in September. In addition Treasury supply has been lighter than usual in March and April. Despite that and the Fed telegraphing its move to a less tight policy, T-bill rates have not come down. The money markets remain under upward pressure. In recent weeks there have even been T-bill paydowns, pushing cash into the market. That includes paydowns of $10 billion on April 2, and another $10 billion on April 9. Then on April 11, $26 billion will be paid down. That should goose all the markets for a day or two. Another $10 billion will be paid down on April 16. Much of that cash will be absorbed by issuance of new coupon paper, but we should see some short term effects in the form of briefly lower T-bill rates and bond yields, as well as higher stock price. The TBAC forecast optimistically calls for more paydowns through the end of May. The forecast expects $23 billion of bill paydowns in the last 2 weeks of April, then $102 billion in paydowns in May. That will be countered by the expected $39 billion in net coupon supply at the end of April and $99 billion in May.

Short term Treasury Bill interest rates have remained near their highs. That’s despite the Fed announcing a less tight monetary policy, and despite a big reduction in Treasury supply. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know…

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zero_value Master of Stock Proctology

zero_value

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I'm no longer with them. Have been posting on WSE. Will generally do 2-3 posts a week.  Here are the latest. 

I'm still ramping up as I've devoted more attention to marketing lately.  

Lee's Latest Free Thinking

LEE'S FREE THINKING

Listen Now! Hollowing Out US Economy Will Lead To Cataclysm

by Lee Adler • April 15, 2019

Content hosted by iono.fm Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds, just follow the money. Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader tracks and shows you the monetary…

 

LEE'S FREE THINKING, MUST READ

US Economy Growing Or Not?

by Lee Adler • April 13, 2019

Gas Price Rise Suggests Economy Growing

Is the US economy growing or not. That is the question.

 

LEE'S FREE THINKING, MUST READ

Treasury Bill Interest Rates Stay Sticky Near the Highs

by Lee Adler • April 10, 2019

T-bill rates have been rangebound near the highs since December. The market hasn’t budged despite the widespread belief that the Fed will cut rates. The Fed will reduce its bloodletting rate from $50 billion to $35 billion per month in May, and will end the program in September. In addition Treasury supply has been lighter than usual in March and April. Despite that and the Fed telegraphing its move to a less tight policy, T-bill rates have not come down. The money markets remain under upward pressure. In recent weeks there have even been T-bill paydowns, pushing cash into the market. That includes paydowns of $10 billion on April 2, and another $10 billion on April 9. Then on April 11, $26 billion will be paid down. That should goose all the markets for a day or two. Another $10 billion will be paid down on April 16. Much of that cash will be absorbed by issuance of new coupon paper, but we should see some short term effects in the form of briefly lower T-bill rates and bond yields, as well as higher stock price. The TBAC forecast optimistically calls for more paydowns through the end of May. The forecast expects $23 billion of bill paydowns in the last 2 weeks of April, then $102 billion in paydowns in May. That will be countered by the expected $39 billion in net coupon supply at the end of April and $99 billion in May.

Short term Treasury Bill interest rates have remained near their highs. That’s despite the Fed announcing a less tight monetary policy, and despite a big reduction in Treasury supply. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know…

 

 

Thanks much Doc your work is appreciated greatly....fyi check your Easter egg there is something in it from the Easter Bunny  :) .......

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Jorma Professor of Stock Proctology

Jorma

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Posted

Lee, one thing about a possible longer term trend change in Treasury coupons is that  nobody expects it. Well damn few.  One would be hard pressed to find an example of market sentiment more skewed to one side. 

Despite all that I can't believe it either. If push comes to shove the old liquidate stocks and buy Treasuries dynamic should work again.  I mean it would be Armageddon if both markets fell. I gave up on the Armageddon stuff, in my lifetime. 

Boeing down only $4 after the NY Times dump on them  yesterday.  Amazing

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/20/business/boeing-dreamliner-production-problems.html

This was at the top, or near it, of their online edition all day yesterday. I can't even find a link to it now at all but maybe I am missing it. I can only imagine the shitstorm that came their way for publishing this now.

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