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aussiebear

World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Gravitational grind

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All Ords 5-day chart

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=AU:XAO&uf=0&

http://bigcharts.mar...com/default.asp

 

Not too much change from the am post, All Ords +0.3% with sectors ranging from Healthcare +2.6% down to Consumer Staples -1.4%.

Over in Asia, China -0.4%, Hong Kong -0.5%, Japan -0.8%, India currently +0.2%.

Just open in UK/Europe and there's a bit of red about: FTSE -0.7%, DAX -0.5% and CAC -0.2%.

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=UK%3AUKX&uf=

  

  

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DX%3ADAX&uf=

 

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=FR%3APX1&uf=

  http://bigcharts.mar...com/default.asp

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According to the Wall Street Journal this morning, "The Dow and S&P 500 are headed toward their best-ever start to a year since 1987..."

Uh...

OK. 

1987

 

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39 minutes ago, DrStool said:

According to the Wall Street Journal this morning, "The Dow and S&P 500 are headed toward their best-ever start to a year since 1987..."

Uh...

OK. 

1987

 

Two thoughts.  The crash was in October, of course. Ultimately it was a brief sliver in time that is now barely noticeable on a long term chart. 

I've mentioned this before but I saved the next days WSJ. It's sitting on the bottom of a dresser drawer. When I looked it up in 2017 on the 30 year anniversary to see what it was worth  I think I saw $7. Not so bad actually. That's twice the rate of return, not inflation adjusted of course,  of the DOW.

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Just waiting for the giant leap above 2820. Just like the rest of the world. It's so close. We need a hook. Peace with NK isn't going to do it. I wonder if nuclear war between India and Pakistan would be bullish? Cratering car sales in China stories are bubbling, that isn't bullish. 

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They are pretty damn serious about defending 2780 for the end of the month.  What about DOW 26K? 

 

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6 hours ago, Jorma said:

Two thoughts.  The crash was in October, of course. Ultimately it was a brief sliver in time that is now barely noticeable on a long term chart. 

I've mentioned this before but I saved the next days WSJ. It's sitting on the bottom of a dresser drawer. When I looked it up in 2017 on the 30 year anniversary to see what it was worth  I think I saw $7. Not so bad actually. That's twice the rate of return, not inflation adjusted of course,  of the DOW.

You can add that tbe 1987 low was never retested again, not even close. It was something like the first Flash Crash ever. It is the proof that price behaviour in markets is not static but can change and react like never before in recorded history. That‘s why backtestsd trading systems always perform better than after they perform once they did go live. Even those who say they didnt do data mining did so. Not necessarily by will but by natural human behaviour.

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Sideways is the new down. I think a year of sideways would count as a bear market.  A down year would be Armageddon as last year showed.

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31 minutes ago, Jorma said:

Sideways is the new down. I think a year of sideways would count as a bear market.  A down year would be Armageddon as last year showed.

In theory as markets age they should become more and more efficient due to more and more available information and therefore volatility should go down. Normally all momentum strategies should already be abitraged away, but they aren‘t. Not yet.

Bear markets are not the norm. There was only 73/74 cause Dollar/Gold peg didn‘t exist anymore and the USD began to free float AND the oil crisis happened. The oil crisis was a MAJOR economic event and a game chamger. In 2008 the financial system as we know it was at stake. Again a MAJOR event. It took the markets 35 years to experience another major bear market. The 2000-2003 was only due to Nasdaq, which was insanely overvalued, but no banks, no big pharma etc. were threatened to implode in 2000-2003.

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54 minutes ago, fxfox said:

In theory as markets age they should become more and more efficient due to more and more

All these rational explanations are rationalizations.  Market outcomes, all markets, are largely determined by their design. All markets are not the same, which is the great neoliberal lie.  Inexorably governments have taken a more active role in designing markets and markets are designed by the participants to win and so they do win. The inflation of assets especially financial assets can be explained rationally as inevitable which is essentially what your points were.  I don't want to touch efficiency however. Inevitable it may be but that is how they were designed. God or history or the fates or the invisible hand have not made inflation of assets inevitable. People have.

At any rate it's like shooting rubber bands at the stars to fight the system that demands asset inflation. The outlines of where it will end are coming into view and that is the earth itself but it will never end by forces within the 'market'. So say I.

 

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You  guys are overthinking this. It's about the money. Is there enough or not?  

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