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aussiebear

World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Awkward ambiguity

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I'm ranting on Twitter. https://twitter.com/Lee_Adler

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They are going to take MBS paydowns and put them into long dated Treasuries.  Well of course they are not going to do bills but I figured I would add that just to be clear.

It occurred to me yesterday I've forgotten that MBS runoffs are runnning off the balance sheet too. Right?

Anyway there is QEI.  Right there. It's official. $1.5TN or so more Treasuries on the balance sheet. It will take some time, but still. 

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I don't see a material difference or impact there. It was always assumed that they'd go to zero MBS.  

In my view, the issue is whether they go back to printing or not. A flat balance sheet would still be a grinding disaster considering the onslaught of average $100 billion per month in  new Treasury supply.  

Here we have a rally based on hopium and driven  by a massive increase in leverage, not permanent (or semi-permanent) central bank money. 

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This rally should give us some big economy numbers for the next few months.  If so it will give us some fun examples of Fed head sniveling.  If I read 'economic uncertainty" one more time.............  When isn't there economic uncertainty?

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I see on the wire Kellogg is stockpiling inventory before Brexit.  As if what they are going to need over there is bran flakes. 

I'm thinking, see below. Do you concur Dr. Stool? 

 

pepto.jpg

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