Jorma Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 hours ago, zero_value said: Liquidity is out of line with these levels something has to give and give in a big way. Fed and central bank liquidity is super liquidity but good old credit expansion is liquidity too. Lee deduces that a good portion of the current brisk credit expansion is for financial purposes. The one thing he doesn't track and probably can't is that China last month blew the doors off with record credit expansion. Who knows how much of that leaks into our markets but it's some. I believe there is a nefarious aspect going on which not only is boosting the cyclical mood but the actual markets as well. With the amount of leverage in play it seem certain we will at least have some air pockets but damn they are so brief they are hard to catch. As Lee says watch the technical and cyclical first. The liquidity thing is beyond timing, unless you have the guts or is it foolishness to sit on losses and wait them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 Dow to GDP ratio at historical extremes: https://www.macrotrends.net/2574/dow-to-gdp-ratio-chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 In the end we will just do what we began with: We will look at price. Only that. Nothing else. Nobody on earth knows what is really going on in China rega ding the impact of their central bank regarding the markets. See, even the FED lies to the public, so how should we trust the figures of a totalitarian communist nazi state??? I say: The figures from China are all made up, more or less. Given that, how can we then figure out which impact the liqui from China has for the worldwide available liquidity pool? Nobody knows, not even the FED or the government, not even the CIA. So: How should WE know? Answer: We do NOT know. There is no holy grail. We thought we found it, vut we have not. In trading you have 2 choices: You are either IN or OUT. Should I buy in march 2003 or not? There is no IF that and that yada dada... In Oct 2017 the closing price of the S&P was 2575. Right now we are at 2775. That means: We were WRONG. Everything else is just a search for excuses. Good thing is: Maybe we will be right 12 months from now. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 I'm in the "Something has to give" camp. TIming is the issue. I'll work on that tomorrow. Still recovering from bronchitis today so will make use of some nap time today. 3:20 PM a perfect time. Leaving Nice in 4 days. If you have never been here, make it a point to spend at least 5 days here one day. It's the best of Europe all in one place. I do hope to return here as a semi permanent expat later this year. I do love those muggy summer nights in Philly though, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 I believe something will give and I think everyone does. Thus leading to QEI (QE Infinity). The record dealer long Treasury position should be understood to be insurance that the Fed will back up the market. Less cynically perhaps it's just faith they will but functionally that doesn't matter. As I keep saying there is nobody against Fed 'ease' as they call it although of course few know the mechanism. If they did they would still be for it. Also, unless or until China has a financial accident we can't and won't.Imagine your Chairman Powell and everyone in power is telling you that the future of the world depends upon you preventing deflation here and now. What would you do? Seeing in your minds eye your picture in history books labeled the man who destroyed America. Or just removed. You know Chairman Dimon has a nice ring to it. Make America great means inflate America. America was founded upon the inflation of assets and credit expansion. Well except the very first few years when it was settled by religious nuts, who were financed by investors mind you. All that other stuff about freedom comes in a distant second. What happens to Europe is the question now. It it torn between China's vision of an integrated Eurasia and America's claim that English speaking white men are at one with God and history. They are leaning East but there is no mechanism to cross that bridge financially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted February 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2019 ---> Miracle Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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