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World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Mimed melodies

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All Ords 5-day chart

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=AU:XAO&uf=0&

http://bigcharts.mar...com/default.asp

 

Another up day for All Ords, +0.4% but not quite the exuberance of yesterday.  Sectors ranged from IT +2.3% down to Healthcare -0.9%.

Over in Asia, Japan +0.1%, India currently +0.8%.

UK/Europe yet to open:

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=UK%3AUKX&uf=

  

  

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DX%3ADAX&uf=

 

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=FR%3APX1&uf=

  http://bigcharts.mar...com/default.asp

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I'm getting very bearish again. 

The market faces a reckoning. An unpleasantly surprising case of sudden onset explosive diarrhea from overconsumption of financial assets driven by overuse of leverage. 

 

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The Treasury has $347bn in it's checking account. It may well end the month with near that.  The point is that the debt ceiling being reimposed on 3/1 will lead to another halt in borrowing with similar results as last time. Depending on how far down they are willing to take the account the borrowing hiatus could last quite a while. The Treasury hasn't even started using their tricks like deferring pension contributions or pushing money around the plate. I've got no idea how long $347bn can last. 2 months?

I've been surprised that the evil minds behind the debt ceiling games have not figured out that the Treasury has the revenue to pay 85% of its bills without borrowing. Figure it out.

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1 hour ago, Jorma said:

The Treasury has $347bn in it's checking account. It may well end the month with near that.  The point is that the debt ceiling being reimposed on 3/1 will lead to another halt in borrowing with similar results as last time. Depending on how far down they are willing to take the account the borrowing hiatus could last quite a while. The Treasury hasn't even started using their tricks like deferring pension contributions or pushing money around the plate. I've got no idea how long $347bn can last. 2 months?

I've been surprised that the evil minds behind the debt ceiling games have not figured out that the Treasury has the revenue to pay 85% of its bills without borrowing. Figure it out.

That means we go to the moon?

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4 minutes ago, fxfox said:

That means we go to the moon?

I don't know. Too many contingencies.  It's just one to consider.  Lee is making the case that the Treasury supply is going to be gigantic till the end of March.  Maybe not. 

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Last time, the Treasury used accounting tricks to keep borrowing. It burrowed from the SS trust fund first. Don't know if they'll do it again.  They probably have 4 months. I forgot about the debt ceiling thing March 1, to be honest. I don't always think of everything.  😉

But I don't think they'll stop borrowing on March 1. They'll hold out until the April 15 tax haul. They'll probably be able to play games until August or September. Somewhere on the line they'll cut back on borrowing, but who gets the benefit then, stocks or bonds?  Then they'll raise the debt ceiling and the markets will get crushed.  In between, TA will rule. 

But does anybody else feel like the air has gone out of this balloon? Wile E. Coyote moment?  

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

But does anybody else feel like the air has gone out of this balloon? Wile E. Coyote moment?  

I'm not feeling it at all. I mean a real trip down past 12/24. Down to say 2100 area, election day 16. That would take an accident. A liquidity freeze up. Accidents can't be foreseen. That's why they are called accidents.  My only vague sense is if it happens it will come from ETF's.  

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