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aussiebear

World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Vanishing viability

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I'm a little homesick, but I definitely love it here in  Nice. Would like to move here semi-permanently. 

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Hi Lee...Wow you met one other than me that actually admitted to it? !   Anyhow,  no   you measure price of wave 1 then extend that from the top of wave 2 . So the wave 1 is from Sept  down to  low and has 5 sub waves, then we had a perfect a-b-c 3 wave up and it did an exact .618 retracement of wave I.  Just put of Fibo grid over wave 1 so it is at 100%  mark then move the whole thing down so top is at terminus of wave 2 and it gives you fibo level extensions all the way down.  Wave 3 are the strongest, ( for example look as the subwave 3 of wave 1 on my chart)  I am seeing nice clear tradable EW patterns in most of the indices but many are unfolding with the same basic counts as SP. 

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49 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

Russell 2000 is now below the Trump break even line.

IWM12.172018.jpg

I consider the Trump break even lines as the week of 11/7/16. This is the wipe out of the absurd tax cut rally of exactly one year ago.  Among the stupidest public policy actions of all time. Well unless your intent is to destroy the entire system.  

It is just news but the US is headed for a partial government shutdown and not just because Trump suggests he won't sign the spending bills without his wall but because so many congress critters are now absent that even if the bills were put up for vote they could not be passed. (for non Americans I am talking about the House of Representatives which is the body which has to originate spending legislation)  An astounding failure of governance. 

At least TNX fell. The day of  days will be when Treasuries rise in the face of general market liquidation.  I don't want to see it. Nobody should.

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Hi Jorma,   I have placed major tax bill passage dates over the past several decades on the  monthly GDP growth bar chart. There is absolutely no evidence that it may boost GDP for longer than a year.  In fact there is more support that tax increases or ending prior tax cuts lead to a sustained pick up in GDP.  I am going to update that pretty soon  but waiting for growth to return to mean next year after the Trump sugar high.  I have to see if I can find my old chart and post it.  It's like the Laffer curve,  a theory written on the back of napkin that since has no data to support it or prove that it even is a nice looking "curve"

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54 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

Hi Jorma,   I have placed major tax bill passage dates over the past several decades on the  monthly GDP growth bar chart. There is absolutely no evidence that it may boost GDP for longer than a year.  In fact there is more support that tax increases or ending prior tax cuts lead to a sustained pick up in GDP.  I am going to update that pretty soon  but waiting for growth to return to mean next year after the Trump sugar high.  I have to see if I can find my old chart and post it.  It's like the Laffer curve,  a theory written on the back of napkin that since has no data to support it or prove that it even is a nice looking "curve"

Don't bother on my account, or anyone's.  Evidence has nothing to do with it

As to growth returning, it has not even registered as falling yet so................

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