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World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Gelatinous glide


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When we talk about the term „crash“ my expectation would be that we see at least the old resistance around 1500/1600 in SPX. Just going to 2100 or so and starting to meandering around that level is in my view no „crash“.

For NDX I would at least expect a 50% haircut to satisfy the term „crash“. That includes that big „names“ like Netflix and such will get slaughtered to - for sheeple - unimaginable low levels. Apple should go sub 100, Amazon far sub 1000 and so on.

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Well then, you're setting a standard that has never happened in stocks in modern times. That would be a complete bear market like 73-74, 07-09.  I think that that's possible, if not likely, but will take a couple years. I'd define a crash  as a large decline that takes place over a very short period of time.  How large?    

The 1987 crash was 22% in a couple days 

The 1929 crash was 25% in 4 days. 

The September -October 2008 crash  lopped about 32% off the market in a month.

From here, 25% would be roughly 2100.  Might take a bit longer than 3-4 days. I'd call a decline of that magnitude over a month or less a crash.  

It's all semantics but your definition is well beyond the extent of past events that are called crashes.     

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5 day cycle projection still pointing to 2760 and new 2 day points to 2750.  

I think a drop below 2735 would abrogate that. 

Abrogate. Is that a word?

If it is, is it the right word?  

I don't know but it sounded good.  ?

 

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SPX just breached the November 14 and 16 peaks by a few cents, suggesting that it's going higher. Last line of defense for those of us looking for the the move to end here and now is 2754.60.

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