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aussiebear

World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Feckless flickering

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15 hours ago, The End said:

Hello everyone. I see next week as bullish. Went long Big the close. We shall C.

A week is a long time sometimes.

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THIS time its different but there will be shorter in duration violent up moves only to be followed by more breathtaking sell offs.

Debt based liquidity has driven markets to insane levels beyond everyone expectation mine included the draining has commenced position accordingly.

Long TZA from many months ago @11.00 average, added back a little UVXY@63.50 on the pullback.

Will place a few puts on TSLA *if* the stock has more upside looking to risk up to $5K on this absolute POS of a stock downside options will go to zero upside 5x or more.  Dated out no more than 1 month.

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The End: For educational purposes I'd love to understand what indicators make you expect this week to be bullish. Not that I disagree - I just can't see one way or the other. But I understand if these are confidential. I just try to learn and improve as I go. 

My hypothesis is we get a ramp up after the election on Monday. My bias is always to be a little bit early on my calls to I try to be careful. But I base this one three factors: 1) We often see the market go down before elections and up after the elections. 2) Annual seasonality is generally positive from Nov to Apr. 3) Non-presidential election years tend to have a correction followed by a huge run-up. I don't have any doubt about Doc's liquidity issues but I also don't think the market moves in a straight line in one direction so I could see a bullish push up at least until the end of January. But I'm not sure about next week. Still there are some stocks so cheap right now I think they could be bought right now. So I was planning on picking up a few things that I don't think will get any cheaper. There are other stocks that are still overpriced and there are stocks living on too much debt that are simply going to blow up and should not be purchased under any circumstances - they are going to meet the end of the road soon. 

Z.V. I agree that Telsa is a POS but I just don't like shorting cult stocks. There are too many low I.Q. traders out there. But I know you have skill at this stuff so you'll probably do fine. I live just a few miles from the factory and know people who work there and they just say the shit they hear and see is unbelievable but they welcome the paycheck and ignore it.

 

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31 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

The End: For educational purposes I'd love to understand what indicators make you expect this week to be bullish. Not that I disagree - I just can't see one way or the other. But I understand if these are confidential. I just try to learn and improve as I go. 

My hypothesis is we get a ramp up after the election on Monday. My bias is always to be a little bit early on my calls to I try to be careful. But I base this one three factors: 1) We often see the market go down before elections and up after the elections. 2) Annual seasonality is generally positive from Nov to Apr. 3) Non-presidential election years tend to have a correction followed by a huge run-up. I don't have any doubt about Doc's liquidity issues but I also don't think the market moves in a straight line in one direction so I could see a bullish push up at least until the end of January. But I'm not sure about next week. Still there are some stocks so cheap right now I think they could be bought right now. So I was planning on picking up a few things that I don't think will get any cheaper. There are other stocks that are still overpriced and there are stocks living on too much debt that are simply going to blow up and should not be purchased under any circumstances - they are going to meet the end of the road soon. 

Z.V. I agree that Telsa is a POS but I just don't like shorting cult stocks. There are too many low I.Q. traders out there. But I know you have skill at this stuff so you'll probably do fine. I live just a few miles from the factory and know people who work there and they just say the shit they hear and see is unbelievable but they welcome the paycheck and ignore it.

 

TSLA poster child of debt based existence agree on the cult mentality so absolute care required when taking the opposite side to stupidity.  Shorted AMZN with puts when it crossed 1950 (posted back a few months) took a $5k hit on my first attempt as the contract was short dated and options went to zero.  As these went to zero toke another $5K risk and filled for a  huge profit on the drop to 1700 *if* this one kicks back up to 1750 I will take a few puts again not risking more than $5k.  

AMZN is insanely priced but TSLA makes AMZN look a value :) ........Problem with shorting TSLA one as you mentioned hard to short a cult stock the other are experienced shorts getting destroyed.  TSLA will juggle bankruptcy as the entire debt based liquidity is drained will be one of more dramatic future examples of the financial destruction created by the all knowing all powerful treasonous Feds.

BTW, I like your post and timing (not always great but there is only one Madness) on select stocks as you navigate the markets.  I posted on Friday I had taken a position in WD @45.00 stock dropped to @42.00 got nervous for sure but sold @46.00 on the massive rally back.  May take another position near @42.00 *if* Monday opens down.

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6 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Oh... ah...

asking for a friend. 

Accounting is being offered as a fine art.

$2Billion in cash, $20Billion in debt with forward sales of Model 3 accelerated in the "accounting" over this past quarter and next showing a net "profit".  Nice cars in a niche market that while growing has the attention every other car company planing similar technology.

Your "friend" should go all in.

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