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aussiebear

World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Cancerous cascade

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Again, the Dow blows a 500 point chunk and the market hasn't even been open an hour. That thousand point down day is coming. Maybe two thousand. 

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a couple of downtrend lines converge on the hourly at 2687. Normally I'd expect a pivot there. Also, it's 10:30 turn time. Watch this closely. If it does not hold, there will be a buying vacuum. No bids. 

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1 minute ago, Jorma said:

Still 600 S&P points above election day 2016.

Usually see a bounce after the elections are over... Folks don't like uncertainty.

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35 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I refuse to gloat. If I gloat, the market will have a rocket launch.

I'm actually kind of sad.  If this is the collapse, many of my friends and relatives are going to lose a lot of money. They're not traders. They're long term investors. Most are in their 60s and 70s. They ask what I think. I tell them. You should not be in the market. They're paying you to hold T-bills. Rates are going up. Just keep buying them and rolling them over. 

And then they ignore me. They'll ask me again after it's too late, and then I'll ignore them.  It's just sad.  

I hear you.  Its a fruitless exercise trying to help people understand how the markets work and its risks when were in a bull market. I now own one of the largest private vaults in North America. I think people are really underestimating counterparty and systemic risk. I try to educate people on these topics and it seems like no one really cares and  believe nothing bad can happen. 

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10:30 turn time came a little late, but it's here. Bulls can't rescue themselves because they have no cash.  Let's see how far short covering can take this thing.

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I take it back. 10:30 turn time came at... TA DA!... 10:30 !

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5 day cycle projection pulled up to 2691 suggesting that the low is in. 

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If the SPX clears 2725 with authoritah, could get back to unch. If it fails, then the crash is on. 

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12 minutes ago, potatohead said:

excellent article.

Paul Volcker, at 91, Sees ‘a Hell of a Mess in Every Direction’

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/23/business/dealbook/paul-volcker-federal-reserve.html

 

I suspect if Volker heard the argument that the root of the problem is simply the vast increase in money, ie. credit,  he wouldn't get it.

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