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World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Vertiginous vaulting


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Lee, way off in the weeds again but if by chance you know or care;  where in the US budget are the outlays for paying down Treasury securities?   Obviously I am referring to the Fed redeeming Treasury notes.  Is it even in the budget?   Or am I thinking about this all wrong?  Aren't the $200 some billion redemption's of Fiscal Year 18 going to be counted in the years 'deficit'?

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54 minutes ago, Jorma said:

Lee, way off in the weeds again but if by chance you know or care;  where in the US budget are the outlays for paying down Treasury securities?   Obviously I am referring to the Fed redeeming Treasury notes.  Is it even in the budget?   Or am I thinking about this all wrong?  Aren't the $200 some billion redemption's of Fiscal Year 18 going to be counted in the years 'deficit'?

It's not a paydown at all. It's the opposite. It's new supply issuance to pay off the Fed, which is demanding its money back. Treasury must go into the market and borrow that by issuing new debt. 

It's included in the regular offerings, not a separate line item.  Only the interest is part of the defecate. 

Total debt doesn't change, only the fact that public buyers replace the Fed as the holders of the debt. The public, which is everybody not named Fed, and includesdealers,  foreign governments, central banks, and investors, must absorb the newly issued debt that replaces that previously held by the Fed. 

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2 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Downtrend and EMA200 hourly served as res today. FED was not so favourish for da bulls, but they staged a comeback. So once the double res is cleared tonorrow up we go. Seems like this whole thing is still awash in liquidity.

I would really like to see the MACD cross back over before getting warm and fuzzy again.

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2 hours ago, fxfox said:

Downtrend and EMA200 hourly served as res today. FED was not so favourish for da bulls, but they staged a comeback. So once the double res is cleared tonorrow up we go. Seems like this whole thing is still awash in liquidity.

Except for that 50% Argentina had to pay to get some notes off.  Not sure the duration.  That's the worst case.  There are plenty of other bad cases, and then there is Urp.  

Well your there. You tell us.  Is Italian or Spanish debt really going to be kept liquid for another year? Three years?  How, without the ECB?  

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4 hours ago, fxfox said:

Downtrend and EMA200 hourly served as res today. FED was not so favourish for da bulls, but they staged a comeback. So once the double res is cleared tonorrow up we go. Seems like this whole thing is still awash in liquidity.

There's no liquidity.   But there's no stock for sale either.  That's why there's so much volatility.  Bids and offers few and far between. Spreads are a mile wide.  

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