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aussiebear

World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Simmering stodge

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http://bigcharts.mar...com/default.asp

 

 

All Ords finished -0.4% led down by Miners -1.4% and Materials -1.3%.

Seriously red in parts of Asia: China -0.3%, Hong Kong -1.5%, Japan -2%, India currently -0.4%.


 

UK/Europe dodging bullets: FTSE and DAX -0.5%, CAC -0.2%.

 

 

 

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big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DX%3ADAX&uf=

 

 

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http://bigcharts.mar...com/default.asp

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My GLD and SLV positions are getting gobsmacked in pre-market trading. Nobody wants precious metals anymore. If this keeps up for a few more months I may need to got to Apmex and pick up some bars once it bottoms out.

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The last secular bear market in gold lasted 21 years. This one started in 2011.  

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Obviously, the US stock market is never going down again. 

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2 day cycle projection 2850. 

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Resistance indicated at 2845. 

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Yeah - I'm old enough to remember that commodities can have super-long cycles and gold and silver can go down longer than one can imagine. So we may be there. I didn't sell at the open but I may soon. I'm thinking the Turkish issue is really making the dollar strong right now so I may be better selling in a couple of days after that cools down (hopefully).

 

Bought some RYN (Lumber) for the dividend at $34.00. The price is down a lot because lumber demand is down with the drop in new home construction. I just like the dividend so I'll probably just hold a bit unless it starts to go down more from here. I don't expect a capital gain out of this just the dividend.

 

Logged into one of my account and noticed the Fidelity Select Biotechnology Portfolio FBIOX is down 90% in value since Friday. Nice! Looks like they had a 10:1 stock split and Vanguard didn't adjust the # of shares by 10x so it looks like a huge drop in the balance. That was a nice scare but I'm sure they'll update it in a couple of days.

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2 day cycle projection 2850. 

 

This is one time I'm thrilled to that it's wrong. 

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THE GREAT BOND OXYMORON

 

I've always thought that total return bond funds have little real reason to exist

 

After all unlike stocks Bonds are a fairly undifferentiated product.....in that there price tend to move all together.

 

And so are very amenable assets for index funds

Interest rates are low and just about all bonds are a bad buy.

 

The only real three way for unconstrained bond funds to outperform is...........

 

1/  Take on more leverage

 

2/ Take on more risk

 

3/ Short

 

But in a rising interest rate environment these are a recipe (except for item 3) to underperform NOT outperform.

 

i.e the total return bond fund boom was very much a creature of QE and without its hot monetary air will wither on the vine. 

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