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aussiebear

World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Lavish launch

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Early openers taking heart from the overnight action: Kiwis +0.2%, Aussies +0.5%, Japan +0.8%, Sth Korea +1%.

Aussie sectors are ranging from Telecomms +1.6%, Miners +1.5% down to Utilities -0.6%.

 

 

All Ords

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/business/

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big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=AU%3AXAO&uf=

http://bigcharts.mar...com/default.asp

 

 

Another +0.5% gain for All Ords  with the index seemingly bent on challenging those recent highs.  Sectors ranged from Miners +1.4%, Materials/Energy +1.3% down to REITS -0.5%.

Over in Asia, China -0.2%, Hong Kong +0.8%, Japan +0.9%, India currently +1%.


UK/Europe fairly restrained so far: FTSE -0.1%, DAX +0.1%, CAC +0.4%.

 

 

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=UK%3AUKX&uf=

 

 

 

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big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=FR%3APX1&uf=

 

http://bigcharts.mar...com/default.asp

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3 day cycle projection now 2798.  That squares with the conventional measured move targets of 2789 and 2805 from Monday's breakout 

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Inflection point here. 

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DfGlBAvW0AAkx61.jpg

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Inflection point here. 

 

 

Doc, not sure you recall but back late 2008 when the Fed started counterfeiting it took another almost 5 months for the "markets" to bottom.  

Well guess where we are now?  About 5 months from starting the burying of evidence project.

We will see a prolonged period of market correction turning to a full blown Bear the likes we have never seen.  

Hardon in both erections....

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Doc, not sure you recall but back late 2008 when the Fed started counterfeiting it took another almost 5 months for the "markets" to bottom.  

Well guess where we are now?  About 5 months from starting the burying of evidence project.

We will see a prolonged period of market correction turning to a full blown Bear the likes we have never seen.  

Hardon in both erections....

 

 

It's not analogous, but removing money from the system will have an effect. I have recently pointed to July. 

 

The market turned instantly when the Fed started buying from Primary Dealers in March 2009. Before that they were still doing end arounds. It took them until March 2009 to figure out that they had to go back to the old way--Permanent Open Market Operations, and they had to do it in size. 

 

Now this is completely different. Primary Dealers are once again not the direct conduit, although indirectly they must still absorb Treasury supply. That takes money out of the financial sphere and transfers it to the economic sphere. So the effects are indirect, and delayed as well.  Meanwhile, the Fed's cohorts are still printing and some of that money moves immediately  to the US. 

 

I have written here http://wallstreetexaminer.com/category/professional-edition-3/money-and-the-fed/ and in brief over at https://suremoneyinvestor.com/ and  that I expect this to become apparent in July when the Fed goes to $40B per month in withdrawals.  

 

This is the nexus of my research.  I'll stand by my call that we're already in a bear market unless they take out the highs.  The data is clear and the analysis is pretty straightforward.  The Fed wants to deflate the bubbles, and the Fed ultimately gets what it wants.  

 

Rule Number One--Don't fight the Fed. 

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2 PM was a cycle low. Let's see how  strong the rebound is. 

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It's not analogous, but removing money from the system will have an effect. I have recently pointed to July. 

 

The market turned instantly when the Fed started buying from Primary Dealers in March 2009. Before that they were still doing end arounds. It took them until March 2009 to figure out that they had to go back to the old way--Permanent Open Market Operations, and they had to do it in size. 

 

Now this is completely different. Primary Dealers are once again not the direct conduit, although indirectly they must still absorb Treasury supply. That takes money out of the financial sphere and transfers it to the economic sphere. So the effects are indirect, and delayed as well.  Meanwhile, the Fed's cohorts are still printing and some of that money moves immediately  to the US. 

 

I have written here http://wallstreetexaminer.com/category/professional-edition-3/money-and-the-fed/ and in brief over at https://suremoneyinvestor.com/ and  that I expect this to become apparent in July when the Fed goes to $40B per month in withdrawals.  

 

This is the nexus of my research.  I'll stand by my call that we're already in a bear market unless they take out the highs.  The data is clear and the analysis is pretty straightforward.  The Fed wants to deflate the bubbles, and the Fed ultimately gets what it wants.  

 

Rule Number One--Don't fight the Fed. 

 

Breakouts in the NasCrack and Smalls fells like a 10 year runaway blow off top....not really a Bear would you say yet in these markets at this point?......Broader I can sort of see a very hungry Bear about to emerge....

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The Nasdaq is a sector and the Russell is a small cap index, reconstituted from scratch yearly, so it's not a consistent measure. Concentration of liquidity into hot sectors is consistent with the transition from bull to bear. If a broad market index like the SPX breaks out, then I'm wrong. 

 

The fact that the market is attempting to test the highs here doesn't bother me at all.  2007 we had a top in May-July and another one in October. 2000 top in March and another in August-October.  

 

To me this is more like 73, which had a blowoff in January and repeated rallies all year. 

 

In the short run this is frustrating if you're trying to trade it from the short short side, but I don't have a problem with it in the big picture.  I'm still pretty sure that I've analyzed it correctly. Time will tell. 

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The Nasdaq is a sector and the Russell is a small cap index, reconstituted from scratch yearly, so it's not a consistent measure. Concentration of liquidity into hot sectors is consistent with the transition from bull to bear. If a broad market index like the SPX breaks out, then I'm wrong. 

 

The fact that the market is attempting to test the highs here doesn't bother me at all.  2007 we had a top in May-July and another one in October. 2000 top in March and another in August-October.  

 

To me this is more like 73, which had a blowoff in January and repeated rallies all year. 

 

In the short run this is frustrating if your trying to trade it from the short short side, but I don't have a problem with it in the big picture.  I'm still pretty sure that  I've analyzed it correctly. Time will tell. 

 

 

Admire your analysis it is purely numbers which you then translate to market moves.....If your analysis worked for the past 10 years why wouldn't it work for the next 18 months?

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