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We Made It Through Yet Another Week


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Rockhead:

 

You are too kind. Please don't bother on my account I'm not advanced enough in keeping my emotions out of my trading to short stocks yet. :rolleyes:

 

Perhaps someone could benefit from the information if you see pootential there.

 

I was thinking several days to a week. Like I said, I am just looking at the charts and MACD.

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Lets do the Simple Guy, Simple analysis math here

 

1517 top to 1391.... first major leg down

 

38% fibo naccho retracement is about 1435... we hit 1430.xx today... pretty close.

 

Next move, should this re-tracement be completed today... would be ... ready??

 

161% of the first leg (1517 less 1391 or 8.4% down)

 

Thats 8.4% time 161= 13.5%

 

1431 times .865 = 1237 on the NAS

 

 

 

1237 on the NAS.... yes... 1237 on the NAS... I could be wrong, but thats generally how it works.

 

I will be shorting at the close

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ano- a WHOOPsaw, or WHOPsaw, is properly only associated with the brekout of a key support or resistance level, which subsequently fails, trapping all in it's wake. An example currently in progress would be this. A close below 905 would be the unusually powerful "Double WHOPsaw."

 

whop.png

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Doc,

Revolving credit increased @4.1% while non-revolving decreased @1.2% resulting in an annualized growth rate of 1% (the slowest growth in 18 months).

 

IMO, it reflects the slowdown in durable goods consumption that seems obivious but ignored by the market. GM F, boats, RV have slowed down in recent months a trend YOBO was referencing. I don't think this was transferred to refi money. Why borrow against your house when zero percent financing is available on almost any durable good. I suspect this data (OCT) had some bearing on the FEDs recent cut.

 

I posited a WAG that consumer credit growth would slow substantially in q402-q103 due to the overhang of 0% financing binge in q401. Those bills now come due in full or else you make 21% payments on the entire balance. IMO that is where the refi money will go. So far so good, we will know soon enough.

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Sorry all, I was pulled away and missed a posting.

 

Ano, PD answered your question and he's been relying on the intra-day P/C longer than I have. So, you got it straight from the pro.

 

The bottom line is the Index shorts tend to be the smart money and the equity tends to be the crowd - you want play the opposite than the crowd.

 

The meeting of the index and equity this morning generally means the market is going up since the Index puts drop (they've gone long) and the equity puts increase (they're going short). After the meeting at a P/C of 106 (play that in the lottery, all three came up as 106!), the index players starting going short while the equity folks headed back to long postions. So, the market should (is) drop again. However, the equity P/C ratio was too high to give it a firm bearish call after the 106 meeting this morning. Just trending bearish. But, I'm always learning here too. It has been interesting to see these moves.

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Buskow- Those are classic clips from the movie Animal House, which I consider the greatest movie of all time. Part of the reason for this site is to make people laugh, mostly with great memories. Crudeness is part of the gig.

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Lets do the Simple Guy, Simple analysis math here

 

1517 top to 1391.... first major leg down

 

38% fibo naccho retracement is about 1435... we hit 1430.xx today... pretty close.

 

Next move, should this re-tracement be completed today... would be ... ready??

 

161% of the first leg (1517 less 1391 or 8.4% down)

 

Thats 8.4% time 161= 13.5%

 

1431 times .865 = 1237 on the NAS

 

 

 

1237 on the NAS.... yes... 1237 on the NAS... I could be wrong, but thats generally how it works.

 

I will be shorting at the close

spx is currently at 38.2 retracement intraday too

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Sweef, VV is amazing at picking out turds to short. Once this PIG really starts heating up (now that we've turned the corner) its going to be a shorting bonanza (not that it isn't now) like it was back last Winter/Spring. I'm waiting until then (~early Jan) for the list to expand even more before acting on shorts b/c it's much easier since at that point in the cycle practically everything it picks turns to gold. It becomes a no brainer at that point. Right now its still a little tricky.

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