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aussiebear

World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fussy fiddling

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Looks like Today is all about the MEGA CAP - FANG TECH

But definitely not conscious.......or with Good Karma......

 

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>: How many more ETF's can they devise........ :o

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Here comes the down elevator. 

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Or...

 

Maybe not. :lol: 

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Coming from the guy who may have just coined the term "Super Crash"

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

Nah, that was my editors. It was part of their huge marketing program for the guy who was in that seat  before me. 

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Looking at the Dow components I see most in two categories:

 

1) Since 2009 low have formed steady parabolic uptrends :MMM, HD,MSFT,UNH,V,JNJ, JPM   [GS, IBM,NKE along with the    biotechs also but they broke down in 2015] 

2) Late Rally Gang with sloppy uptrends since 2009 but in early 2016 took off (many in smaller parabolas now):AXP, APPL,CAT,CSCO,DWDP,MCD,PG, WMT,CHV

 

Here are 3 charts: MSFT and UNH from group 1  along with the BTK biotech parabola that busted in 2015, now wedging up to a second TOP.  My point is these parabolic trends always end as they approach a vertical trajectory with a  distinct blow off which is what I believe we are experiencing now.

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There is a 5-wave bearish wedge in SP since 2009 low that is completing.   A final blow off vertically out of the wedge is not uncommon, we could see something pretty spectacular here by years end, likely a success in tax reform would be attributed as the cause.  If this plays out EW says a return to the wedge origin occurs rapidly meaning a "Super crash"  starting in 2018 

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Nice work!

 

Those are linear charts. In percentage terms the uptrend is slowing, no? 

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I don't really see the trend slowing on either weekly log charts of SP and Dow, most IT oscillators I use are overbought but not weakening or diverging.  Dow is at top of its uptrend channel however and SP in the middle.  Since the early '16 low you probably know a lot of the measures of market internals have been lousy and getting much worse along with record low volatility and record highs in sentiment indicators.  To me this feels a lot like '99 again, we have had another lengthy expansion like under Clinton, it just didn't feel quite the same since we had to climb out of such a big hole but Trumptimism's irrational exhuberance is now on full display!   

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