BusKow Posted February 19, 2003 Report Share Posted February 19, 2003 "In my EW take of the weekly chart below, my tentative wave count is that a Wave-D of an ending diagonal triangle is now complete or nearly complete. If this is the case, then the LT trend will again resume, eventually taking the POG downward in a wave-E to a likely range of between 170-200. " Tim Sharp on the Market Views Site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted February 19, 2003 Report Share Posted February 19, 2003 How are YOU going to play it? With futures or by shorting every share of gold mining stocks people will lend you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jrmfl Posted February 19, 2003 Report Share Posted February 19, 2003 "In my EW take of the weekly chart below, my tentative wave count is that a Wave-D of an ending diagonal triangle is now complete or nearly complete. If this is the case, then the LT trend will again resume, eventually taking the POG downward in a wave-E to a likely range of between 170-200. " Tim Sharp on the Market Views Site sheesh, how long ya'll gonna beat that drum? EWI's Neely disagree's with bobby 110%... and he's a far better "hog caller" than the maestro. gold at 170? good luck, i'll lend you all the mining shares you want. short away, been listening to this non-sense for years. love it when the wall of worry continues to grow. please keep us abreast of your capital plays. :~O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Who, pray tell, is Tim Sharp? And I do not believe Neely is associated with EWI in any way, shape or form - but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoshaviah Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Yes, by all means get short now before gold goes down. Short the metal and short the stocks too, and do so on margin. Don't waste anytime if you really believe this. Borrow money on your house, from neighbors, your parents, the people you work with and get short before you miss the big move down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Excellent post BusKow. For better or worse, right or wrong, I like the fact that your links provide data/charts. It's easy for anyone to balk with a blank chart (I call that the "neener neener" rebuff) but I don't see anyone posting e-wave counts that give bullish alternate counts over here. I did see at least one over in SG's forum but couldn't locate it again when I just went to look (a lot of posts to go through). If you look at the 'Cycles' thread (and several other places in this forum) you'll see an 8 year cycle chart for gold in which, to the best of my viewing anyway, we're not that terribly far off from peaking - which would put us in the bearish bias category soon thereafter. I hold all options open at the moment, and until we break 380 I'm thankful I didn't buy at 375+ on the bullish sentiment. Disclosure: I hold physical only at present and my avg price paid for gold is 323. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoshaviah Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 E what where? If I had my way I would ban all E-wave posts from this forum. But I don't have my way :grin: Nevertheless, all you need to do is look at the long-term averages to see what is going on with gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusKow Posted February 20, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Here is the link to Glenn Neely's Interview with Ike at Marketviews. For the EWI reference, there is a link on his chart page which provides this info..."The Elliott Wave Institute is a research and advisory firm in Laguna Beach, California. Founded by Glenn Neely in 1983..." Mr.Neely says he is waiting for a big enough bounce to go short gold, as his count(s) indicates the top is done too. Exoanding fifth wave extension of the C wave is over and that may be the end of a fourth wave in a larger decline. We may finally bounce from $320 and then continue the larger decline. Sorry, I can't type fast enough to paraphrase it all. Of course, he says he could be more wrong than usual too! Those most convinced they can ignore anal cyst's opinions should listen to his comments at the end of the interview. Quite funny in that context! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 E what where? If I had my way I would ban all E-wave posts from this forum. But I don't have my way :grin: Nevertheless, all you need to do is look at the long-term averages to see what is going on with gold. Ban the use of an analysis tool? Are you sure it's not the idea of a potential IT trend reversal back to the LT downtrend you're wanting to ban? In your chart I see us cyclically near the end of a third three year rally in a very long term downtrend. I wish nothing banned (not even Sinclair - as low as my opinion is of him) that might add to as complete a picture possible. As said before, I hold all options open, and - I haven't sold yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Okay, a different EWI than Elliott Wave International of Prechter and Hochberg fame. They are who I think of when I think of EWI. Perhaps I am not alone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Folks, folks. Don't let your emotions interfere with your trading. Just because you're holding gold in various forms and think that it ought to go up must not blind you to the possibility that you're wrong and it could very well go down. I disagree with several things in that article - especially with his pitchforks. He doesn't draw them from major highs and lows and doesn't take into account that they are invalidated once broken. I have no opinion on his e-wave count for gold - mostly because the chart covers too short a time frame for such a count. I mean, he says that the rally of the lows is a D wave? Well, where are the ABC waves? I'd like to see a complete e-wave count since the 1980 top before I can form an opinion on the subject. However, an e-wave count pointing to sub-200 prices for the POG is valid - even if we don't like it. We must keep an open mind for the possibility. I propose the following plan. The 81-day cycle low is due in mid-April, if I understand 7-11's charts correctly. Let's see where the POG goes on the next 81-day cycle high. If it makes a lower high, this would confirm the bearish e-wave picture. Meanwhile, don't hold gold stocks trading below their 50-dma. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 The 81-day cycle low is due in mid-April, if I understand 7-11's charts correctly. Let's see where the POG goes on the next 81-day cycle high. If it makes a lower high, this would confirm the bearish e-wave picture. Meanwhile, don't hold gold stocks trading below their 50-dma. Regards, Vesselin Correct, the next 8n-day cycle low is due April 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoshaviah Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 OK, I give up. If you don't like gold or gold stocks then hold US dollars. Put them under your bed and forget about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Yosh, what I don't like, is holding assets that go down. I don't care whether they are stocks, gold, or seashells. I've had enough of that at the top of the Internet mania. Never again. Discipline, technical analysis, always be on the lookout for the market to prove you wrong. I couldn't care less what are the fundamental reasons saying that gold "should" go up. I just don't want to hold it while it is going down, OK? As K-Wave said, forgive me if I don't get a religious experience from owning gold. :wink2: That doesn't mean that I have sworn off gold forever - I'll hold it again once the uptrend resumes in earnest. In fact, I still hold GLG, KGC and RGLD - and would have held RANGY, ASL, VGZ and MFN, if I had bought them. For now, my indicators tell me that the correction is not over. It is certainly possible that I am wrong - but if this is the case, the market will tell me soon enough via the charts. Stocks to watch as possibly nearing the end of their correction: GG, GFI, HMY, VNVNF, CBJ, RIC, VGZ, SLGLF, PAAS, SSRI. The correction is not over - do not anticipate. These are stocks to monitor; not to buy right now. They can still fall lower if the POG falls again. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 As K-Wave said, forgive me if I don't get a religious experience from owning gold. :wink2: Ditto. I only seem more bearish on gold because I don't bother as much with the bullish observations - everyone else does that for me - so I try and raise warning flags to keep myself and anyone who wants to read them safe. Investing for love of a name or commodity is a dangerous game in the markets - I watch people do this with tech stocks STILL and it pains me to see it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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