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Joe Millionaire


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BTW:  why is keynesian dogma even discussed anymore?   Have we learned Nothing?    Oh well , like they say every new generation has to make the formers mistakes.

Japan over the last 12 years or so has been the great empirical test of Keynsian dogma, er, economics.

 

A laboratory experiment using real people and a real economy.

 

What's the result. A decade of economic stagnation and regression.

 

The real return on the Japanese gov't bond trades lower than any bond in the last 200 years.

 

The overnight cal rate is negative!

 

And, fwiw, I read in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun last year that if you had yen-cost-averaged the Nikkei index over the last 50 years, you'd now be in the red.

 

And despite all this evidence, the FOMC and all The Usual Suspects are repeating the same experiment here. Only the experiment is an order of magnitude larger.

 

At least the Japanese started out as the world's largest creditors.

 

Here they're starting out as the world's largest debtors.

 

It's fubar.

 

[btw, I was one of the posters who gave the buddha a hard time. Irrespective of what he or I think of Ms. Rice, his racist diatribe against her struck me as way out of line. As did his ongoing politicization of the discussion. Doc seemed to agree by deleting those posts.]

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Just wanted to add that I was at a small dinner party over the weekend. A young lawyer couple showed up. They make perhaps 250 or 300k max between them but live like a royal family. Borrow and spend. After 2 hours of conversation about toys,cars,home size etc. I was failing to digest my food and had to excuse myself. Sign of the times. This will be a very long Bear. People live recklessly on margin because they can get away with it so easily. Brand new 5,000 square foot home, heated pool, new BMW,new Mercedes, ... who cares? He wanted to know about the Markets? I told him to preserve his capital first. On the way home I thought to myself, "what capital? that guy is living on borrowed time"

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Mark,

 

As the market draws to a close each day, I tighten the rubber hose around my arm and smack my flesh... looking for a perky vein. I then pull down the menu to Mark To Market... squeezing out bubbles... admire your avatar for 4.8 seconds... position needle... and mainline your stream of consciousness, baby! Ahhhhh.... the staccato wit really soothes my brain as I nod my head in agreement. This junkie won't kick easily. What am I to do... go to thestreet.com for Methadone? Bah and triple bah! I guess I shouldn't be that surprised... eras are ending all around me. Turning and turning in the widening gyre, the center doesn't seem to want to hold. The falcon is dissing the falconer and the blood-dimmed tide is soon to be loosed. (The Second Coming -- W.B. Yeats) I'm hoping you'll find inspiration and continue to raise your fist. If not, thanks for the temporary port in a rough sea of bullshit.

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How about a new show? Joe 15 billionaire (for a day) staring Al himself.

 

Whatever you do Mark, its understandable and you have already made yourself known and respected.

 

Waiting for reality to set in is a fools game. No one wants to face reality.

 

Hope buddy Buddha is on to the timing of the snake oil sales people.

 

Fiat funnies continue.

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Forensic Threads:

 

"Forensic Stool"

"Scene of the Crap"

"Joe Friday, POS"

"The Chocolate Files"

 

or my favorite:

 

"Calling Dr. Stool: Code Brown!!!"

 

Mark, I've actually traded somma your trades. Anyone who JUDGES anyone on this site needs some serious mirror time. No one is judging you expert or otherwise. Please keep posting.

 

Edit - PC killed PruBear, Doc does his best and, in a site like this, bad taste is relative. Buddha, come back when some of these brown noses clear out.

 

Edit - this rally is God's gift to bears.

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not to worry the stock mkt is looking beyond this: "We just learned, for example, that bankruptcies hopped up 5.7% in 2002 to a record 1.5 million. Meanwhile, consumer credit retracted by the largest amount since the Federal Reserve began keeping tabs on it in 1968. Retail sales for January were a robust 2%, far better than the expected 0.6%...but much of that increase can be chalked up to skyrocketing gas prices and the lowest oil supplies in the past 28 years.

 

"

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Frankly, I understand about the trades, but that's not why I read the thread... your writing is priceless... I don't know how you keep managing to come up with all these twisted scenarios, but I guess living in L.A. is a good start on all that...

I truly have had some good laughs courtesy of the pearls of your imagination...

It's fun to bring a little life into the hum/drum jamtoast World of equity manure-ities trading... You do it well.

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Sox Bear, I don't think loU meant skin color by way of "brown noses". But he can answer for himself.

 

Buddha, I was also at a dinner over the weekend. Couple of people at the table were IT types who work at a couple of brokerages - one at Citi and the other at Lord Abbett (sp?). The latter said that mutual fund inflows were what was keeping them in business. Their stock brokerage business was down but were seeing around $50M+ daily/weekly inflows into the MF side. I was too busy concentrating on the wine as the rest of the conversation was pathetic, so the numbers and timeframes could be a little off...

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