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MrHankydoesWallStreet

2016 Bear market hibernation over

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Thanks again MrHanky.  Love your work with the channel lines.  It sure appears if it follows the trend line it might just make the 46 area.  It will be interesting to watch.   

Carnac

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Decided to do XLF today This would be my long term target at $12.42 at a .846 fib retracement pretty much like my work on the SPX and the INDU.

 

XPX = .850 fib retracement of the October 2011 low to the high

 

INDU= .823 fib retracement of the October 2011 low to the high

 

XLF=  .846 fib retracement of the October 2011 low to the high

 

 

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The Dow has a much clearer EW pattern than the SP which is often the case.

It has a distinct 5 wave expanding triangle for wave B and makes projections much more

reliable.  Friday we had an explosive thrust through and out of the top of the triangle with broad participation,

all the hallmarks of a C wave  (still corrective = Bear Rally)  Now we will see psychology change quickly to

fuel it higher. 

It stopped PRECISELY at the A=C or 100% projection which also lines up with the .38 retracement of the whole wave down.

Next stop to watch 16790-16830  cluster of the .50 retracement and 1.38-1.68 extensions, this is most likely reversal area and the one bears should most hope for!

If no reversal on to the .68,  17026.  This would be the first place to start to get worried about NO bear market!

Once retracements get beyond the .68 the odds of reversal quickly go down.

The only resistance left is 17380 where 200 day moving average lies currently. 

That is last stand resistance and will be absolutely nerve rattling the bears if any are still left, could happen.

I am still holding half of my short position in PSQ per system which is just a hair from sell, probably will be exiting Monday on any rally for a decent gain yet.

Soon I will be leaving for my condo in Gulf Shores, Floribama.  But I will try to check in from time to time here.

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