FeedFool Posted February 25, 2003 Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 Rich u need to do work on 9 months cycle this is what we are dealing with. Clue is in the chart. Also remember 9-11 low was a false bottom which would have came in October. We have a bearish picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted February 25, 2003 Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 Footsea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted February 25, 2003 Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 Dax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted February 26, 2003 Report Share Posted February 26, 2003 I hope u guys don't make trading decisions based on my charts. I am just a fool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 26, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2003 Rich u need to do work on 9 months cycle this is what we are dealing with. Clue is in the chart. Also remember 9-11 low was a false bottom which would have came in October. We have a bearish picture FF agreed. The cyclical picture with the 9 month is not entirely clear to me though. Looking at the red indicator in the top panel (stochastic) it does a very good job of representing price movement. The 9 month is certainly in a down phase. The complication as I see it is the 18 month cycle. It appears to be making a long bottom. If it turns up it could truncate the down phase of the 9 month. On the other hand they could both continue lower. These and other cycles could head down into an intermediate selling climax. That is what I would expect but there are no guarantees with Mr. Market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 26, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2003 A couple of comments. I didn't get to watch the tape today. Just as well. I seem to have seen this movie before. We start to see downside acceleration and then we get buying pressure out of the blue. The markets get stabilized and the buyers keep the pressure on. Eventually they are able to frighten the shorts into covering and we have our garden variety short squeeze. Can't blame the bears. We've been hit over the head with this numerous times. Shorts are not generally strong hands. It's been like that since the first markets and the manipulations have been around since before The Street but now it looks like the trading cartel is much bigger than in the past. Â So what does it take to get a sustained down move in a market that would like to drop. One way is for the cartel to be good and ready to let it happen. Another way is for a 10 smegma event. A third is for there to be some serious downside volume. Let me say that I totally agree with Doc about light volume and a bear market. It's a positive. However the lack of volume does make it easier for the boyz to jam this thing whenever they want. Without some real selling by Joe Six Pack we are left to the whims of the matrix. If we had fund redemptions or 401k flight the boyz would be forced to stand aside at least until they could regroup. It's just too easy for them right now. They are probably making money on both sides. Who knows they could have been loading up short futures today waiting for the kill. Â In any event FeedFool has had a hot hand and I wouldn't bet against his call. I'm still short. I've been trying to trade intermediate term. It has been dicey at times. The good quick traders have been doing better than I. As an alternative Pile Drivers POS Index system is brilliant and has worked wonders for those who have followed his example. Â Good luck everyone and trade safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 26, 2003 Report Share Posted February 26, 2003 I have nothing much to add tonight as really nothing much has changed. Benefit of doubt probably should go to bear. What else can you really do. This evening's sudden PPT jam @ 7:15ish will probably fail as there will be no follow through b/c there are no "other buyers" who will follow and how long can the artificial stimulus be applied continuously to spark the fire when the wood is green and the kindling fuel limited in supply? Â Just a pathetic sad situation. Â Well I guess its back to a simple drip drip decline punctuated by those flash-in-the-pan pops that gets everyone worked up over nothing before the next drip, drip down. Â Hell, I can wait, turds don't do well in that kind of environment over the long haul :grin: Â Good thing we're not buying put options. I've got all the time in the world. Â Good night. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 26, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2003 At the request of Flaming Turds a pair of Gann Fans of the S&P long term. The first is using a linear scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 26, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2003 This one is using a semi-log scale. Turds is correct. This chart does snap into focus. The 45 dergee lines act as resistance on the way up and support on the way down. Maybe he will explain his ideas about playing the 45 degree line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChainGangOf22 Posted February 26, 2003 Report Share Posted February 26, 2003 This one is using a semi-log scale. Rich, Â That is one fascinating chart! It is amazing how the 45 degree lines have guided the price action. Looking at the chart in the July 2002 to present time frame, I can see how the blue gann lines are acting as support and resistance lines right now. As prices are guided further away from the red 45 degree line, there must be some serious pressure building up. The gap between the red 45 and blue support lines just keeps getting bigger, and the breakdown level of the blue gann support line keeps rising. The bulls are going to have to work fast and hard to keep ahead of it. It looks like the longer this thing goes sideways, the harder the eventual plunge is going to be. And just going sideways it's going to breakdown through that support line. Â Nice job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted February 26, 2003 Report Share Posted February 26, 2003 HRFF SUSS>>pects "The Matrix" ass some of yew call it hASS arranged twixt themselves to make NASTY 1000 and DJIA 8000 their line in the sand. Â Now, will Ms Mkt accomodate 'em? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted February 26, 2003 Report Share Posted February 26, 2003 Boyz can jam the tape much as they like, one can use price and volume to gauge amount of liquidity in the system then liquidity has been drying up. Shorts and Hedgehog?s are supplying the gas and Boyz all the candle painting. Mass psychology in action. If u looks at foreign markets they have bullish divergence but it ain?t going up, In US market there are far to many paint watchers so it has become a painting industries. Â We are in a phase where they shake the tree, once all the fruits have been harvested then down we go. Â One can smell bulls and bears are throwing in the towels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 26, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2003 Boyz can jam the tape much as they like, one can use price and volume to gauge amount of liquidity in the system then liquidity has been drying up. Shorts and Hedgehog?s are supplying the gas and Boyz all the candle painting. Mass psychology in action. If u looks at foreign markets they have bullish divergence but it ain?t going up, In US market there are far to many paint watchers so it has become a painting industries. Â We are in a phase where they shake the tree, once all the fruits have been harvested then down we go. Â One can smell bulls and bears are throwing in the towels. Thanks for those great charts. Did you get anything from the 9 month cycle chart I posted? It's a rough ride but I'm strapped and and have my crash helmet on. Â Chain nice analysis. I'll play with that chart some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted February 26, 2003 Report Share Posted February 26, 2003 Rich I did not get anything extra out from 9 months cycle chart. Â Â There is very little upside left. Boyz are in distribution mode before the drop. This week widow dressing will stop the rot then real fun will begin next week. I will be looking to short high tick ramp job on Friday and final shorts on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 26, 2003 Report Share Posted February 26, 2003 This next "enhanced" chart looks about right to me. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.