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UPDATED 3-2-2003


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Help-Wanted Index

The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month. Because ad volume has proven to be sensitive to labor market conditions, this measure provides a gauge of change in the local, regional and national supply of jobs.


The Latest Press Release

Help-Wanted Index Edges Up One Point

February 27, 2003


The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Advertising Index ? a key barometer of America's job market ? edged up one point in January. The Index now stands at 40, up from 39 in December. It was 47 one year ago.

In the last three months, help-wanted advertising increased in five out of nine of the U.S. regions. Largest increases occurred in the Mountain (20.1%), South Atlantic (12.0%) and New England (8.7%) regions. Steepest declines occurred in the Middle Atlantic (-9.3%), East North Central (-5.0%) and West South Central (-4.1%) regions.


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The Seatbelt Light Is Now On For The CY03 Earnings Ride

Can you say free fall? That term certainly has been applicable the last few weeks for 1Q03 and 2Q03 earnings estimates. Hopefully, we are mistakenly acting like Chicken Little and the sky is really not falling, but at least at the moment the data indicates otherwise.


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INTRODUCTION - Technical Analysis from MarketScreen



Market WrapUp for Friday, February 28

by Mike Hartman


"Economic Confusion"


This week brought a mixed bag of economic reports that seems to have produced more confusion and uncertainty as we approach the war in the Middle East. On a positive note, the U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annual rate last quarter, which was double the rate of increase that was forecast a month ago. Similar good news came with the announcement that U.S. durable goods orders rebounded more than expected in January, with increases in orders for business equipment, automobiles, and defense items. Let?s hope the increase is more than ?seasonally adjusted? numbers and defense spending in preparation for the war. While these were positive reports for the overall economy, they are overshadowed by war concerns and clearly muted with a slowing of new home sales and increasing unemployment.


Jim Puplava's Financial Sense




When Demand Drops...

"...So there is no new real demand. There is more demand, but it, like the idiot fiat dollar bills that we call money, is as phony as, hmmm, is there a way to diss Bill Clinton here? Phony as everything about Bill Clinton. Therefore, as soon as the stimulus stops, the demand drops back to some natural lower natural level, since there was no extra real demand in the first place. Stimulus stops, then demand drops. Hey! That rhymes! And sorta catchy too! Continuing in that poetic mode, when demand drops, production stops. When production stops, employment flops. When employment flops, consumption plops. Flops mops plops tops plops plops plops. I can't stop myself! Plop plop plop!..."



The Mogambo Guru


- The Fed is baaAAaack! Last week was a glorious explosion of $10.4 billion in brand new credit. They bought up over a billion dollar's worth of government debt, too. Whereas the newspapers and the other talking heads are waxing apoplectic over Bush's proposed $307 billion federal spending deficit, here is the damned Fed creating almost TWICE as much and nobody makes a peep! Amazing!


The Treasury, with John Snow as the new Secretary, is anxious to show that he is as arrogant as the rest of the Bush administration, and is now a cool $22.7 billion over the limit, all of which was done in one stinking week. The Treasury has been adding debt to our bill at the rate of about $60 billion PER MONTH for the last year. This is PER MONTH, which you should note is somehow significant judging by my incessant use of all-capital letters bringing your attention to it. Sixty billion bucks per month times twelve months is a big pile of new debt every year. And who must pay this debt? The 110 million workers who are not, theoretically, directly employed by government. That comes to just about $6,500 more debt added to each of our private-sector burdens.


To add insult to injury, the Treasury also released $4.4 billion in actual cash in the week.


Daily Reckoning


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Thanks for all the hard work you put in this thread, too bad you couldn't have given us a heads up on AU a little sooner :D I paid attention and profitted by it, so far so good. You were a little early though, holler a bit louder next time you see something. :lol: :lol:


We are up to our eyeballs in SNOW here in SW Pa., storm of the new century :angry:



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Many of the charts in Night Stool are static. They do not update automatically. As time passes they become stale unlike the live charts towards the beginning of the thread. Don't trade baased upon old charts.


Since Doc mentioned a bounce off the 6-7 week low within a 10-13 week down cycle I went to look for a similar pattern. I found one in the June-July 2002 period. It contained some rather sharp bull spikes but if you rode it out you were well rewarded. It's not easy to sit through the blastoffs.

This is shown for educational/comparison purposes. While there are a number of similarities between the time frames there are also many differences. No two periods will play out identically. Watch Doc's signals.





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Ok here's my view of the 10-12 month cycle.

Nice chart Rich. Using the blue verticle lines to line up the cycle peaks really helps to clarify the cycle. It looks like we're only just getting started heading down on this cycle. I was wondering how you chose the position of the initial blue verticle line. I wouldn't have spotted that as a cycle peak just from the indicators. Am I missing something there? It makes sense if you work back from the more recent peaks though.


Thanks for posting your excellent work Rich.

Why Gang I pull them out my butt like flying monkeys. That's the art part of the deal. And that is why Doc is the man. He's got decades of experience looking at the charts and cycles. I've been starring at charts for about 10 hours a day for many months now. I start with Doc and Hurst's instructions. After creating the chart I try to find the most obvious top or bottom and put a line on it. Someplace where everything lines up. Then based on the nominal cycle length (10-12 month here) I starting counting on either side. When I get to the month where the next top should be I look at the indicators for a top. With any luck it's near the right spot.

Doc says that the indicator cycle top and price cycle top will not always be on the same date.

I had a hell of a time finding all the tops on the 5-6 month so I went for bottoms. I think Doc says that bottoms are better. Butt than Doc would say that bottoms are better. :D

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Gann always recommended weekly charts over daily charts. One week bounce, then down again, is how this looks to me:


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