BAREister Posted February 16, 2003 Report Share Posted February 16, 2003 Czechitout, fellas: http://www.zealllc.com/2003/vxn.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 16, 2003 Report Share Posted February 16, 2003 BARE, Hamilton is wrong on this one. As machinehead noted on M2M, the volatility inidexes don't trade like a normal stock. They spend most of their time range-bound and spike up rarely and for a short while only. They should be treated more like oscillators; not like stocks. Using moving averages, short-term trendlines, Bollinger bands, etc. on them is OK. Using Elliott Waves, chart patterns (especially long-term ones), etc. I meaningless. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chart Guru Doug Posted February 16, 2003 Report Share Posted February 16, 2003 I dunno about the e-wave anal stuff but I do know that these often chart well with t-lines and patterns. best doug My Webpage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sniff Posted February 16, 2003 Report Share Posted February 16, 2003 I like your charts and coments Doug, This is a VIX Chart I have been following. It is live therefore subject to change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 17, 2003 Report Share Posted February 17, 2003 Hamilton's sloppy-drawn VXN chart: See below for a properly drawn VXN chart. Bullish wedge breakout? What bullish wedge breakout?! Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted February 17, 2003 Report Share Posted February 17, 2003 In Edgar Peters's book Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets, he sets out evidence that many natural processes, from annual flood levels of the Nile to stock indeces, have a 'memory effect.' This means that trends, once set in motion, tend to persist. As compared to the 'white noise' of a coin flip or random electrical static, stock market time series are 'pink noise' which includes a trending (autocorrelation) effect. By contrast, Peters makes the startling assertion that volatility is ANTI-TRENDING. That is, volatilty actually tends to reverse itself more often than a coin flip series. He claims that volatility is perhaps the only known occurrence in nature of such an anti-trending series. Elliott wave is inherently based on trends. Now if Edgar Peters is correct that volatility is anti-trending, there may be some "anti-Elliott" discipline for charting it. (Three waves up, five waves down? Naw, just kidding.) But for sure, applying a trend analysis technique (Elliott wave) to an anti-trending series is about as useful as hunting deer with an accordian. But what the hell ... even a coin-flip guess has a 50-50 chance of being right. I call it 'tails' (Vesselin's chart) instead of 'heads' (Hamilton's chart). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chart Guru Doug Posted February 17, 2003 Report Share Posted February 17, 2003 Here is a weekly chart drawn on a closing basis. This one is clearly showing a breakout. My Webpage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 17, 2003 Report Share Posted February 17, 2003 Doug, there is no breakout on a closing basis, either. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chart Guru Doug Posted February 17, 2003 Report Share Posted February 17, 2003 Bont Thats a daily chart you have there. Try it on a weekly and I would think that you come up with a different picture. best to ya doug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 17, 2003 Report Share Posted February 17, 2003 Ah, indeed. Hm, I've often seen patterns which were already present on the daily charts be not present yet on the weekly or monthly charts. But this is the first time I see a pattern which is present on the weekly charts but isn't yet present on the daily chart... Anyway, I don't believe it. The VXN isn't going to explode now. Most likely, we'll have yet another bear bounce first. Just about everything I've looked at says so - the various indexes, gold, dollar, everything. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chart Guru Doug Posted February 17, 2003 Report Share Posted February 17, 2003 I agree about the bounce bont. I could even see the vxn drop as low as the 43 area but for now its a breakout until proven otherwise. regards doug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted February 17, 2003 Report Share Posted February 17, 2003 Another excellent discussion...I use MACD on VIX and VXN with decent results, used in conjunciton with other indicators. It seems to be the best way to discern pattern, although I would not give up on possible Elliott wave interpretations...on the level of "if I see wave structure, I pay attention to them." Is QQ the symbol for QQQ volatility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 17, 2003 Report Share Posted February 17, 2003 Sloth, the symbol for the NDX volatility is $QQV on StockCharts.com. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted February 17, 2003 Report Share Posted February 17, 2003 Yeah, I know about NDX and QQV, but the other day I inadvertently typed 2 Q's instead of 3 and there before me was the QQQ volatility index. I was surprised because I was unaware of it and had not seen it mentioned here on the Great Capitalstool. Anyone have any experience with tracking this? Right now, it's closed below its 55-dma, a bullish signal, and it appears as if the MACD has peaked and is about to give a bullish signal. Looks like we might be going from fear back to complacency, at least s/t. You know what, thinking about it, I disagree that these volatility indices do not trend. I think we use them to see if volatility is trending toward "fear," the higher readings, or toward "complacency," the lower readings. Those are definitely trends, hence, there's trend being measured. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chart Guru Doug Posted February 18, 2003 Report Share Posted February 18, 2003 My Webpagewww.chartsmarts.comMy Webpage I agree about the trending thing Sloth. I have found these indexes to chart very well at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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